Meteorological forecasts from the Polish Institute of Meteorology and Water Management and major international models converge on a daytime maximum of 23°C in Warsaw on June 3 under stable high pressure, light easterly winds, and partial cloud cover. This aligns with early-June climatology, where regional highs typically average near 22°C with minimal day-to-day variability at this time of year. The market-implied odds reflect this strong model consensus and limited potential for significant deviation. Only a rapid shift in cloud cover allowing stronger solar heating or an unexpected warm advection could realistically push readings above the projected peak, while increased precipitation or stronger winds would more likely suppress temperatures slightly below it.