Recent model guidance for Wellington indicates a transition toward cooler southerly flow by August 16, with daytime maxima likely settling in the 8–12°C range amid typical winter variability. Northerly or light winds on preceding days have supported slightly above-average readings near 14–15°C, but an approaching front and increased cloud cover are expected to limit solar heating and enhance mixing of cooler maritime air. NIWA’s seasonal outlook favors near-average temperatures overall, consistent with historical August maxima around 12°C and the influence of regional pressure patterns on advection. Ensemble spreads and minor timing differences in frontal passage create the close clustering of market-implied probabilities across 8–12°C, while extremes below 7°C or above 13°C remain low-probability outliers under current guidance. Updated runs from MetService and international models will refine the exact peak ahead of resolution.