Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Wellington high of 19°C (35%) or 18°C (23.5%), reflecting MetService's latest forecast models projecting a maximum around 19°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerlies. March historical data from NIWA shows average highs of 19.5°C, but recent cool spells—driven by a lingering low-pressure system—have shaved 1-2°C off early autumn expectations, boosting lower outcomes over 20°C+ (21.5%). ECMWF ensemble runs converge on 18-20°C, with low dispersion indicating high confidence; traders eye tomorrow's 5pm update for potential shifts as upper-air patterns stabilize. Baseline uncertainty from coastal sea breezes keeps tails thin for extremes below 17°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Wellington on March 26?
Highest temperature in Wellington on March 26?
19°C 36%
18°C 26%
20°C or higher 21%
17°C 11%
$148,766 Vol.
$148,766 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
11%
18°C
26%
19°C
36%
20°C or higher
21%
19°C 36%
18°C 26%
20°C or higher 21%
17°C 11%
$148,766 Vol.
$148,766 Vol.
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
11%
18°C
26%
19°C
36%
20°C or higher
21%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wellington Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Wellington high of 19°C (35%) or 18°C (23.5%), reflecting MetService's latest forecast models projecting a maximum around 19°C under partly cloudy skies with light southerlies. March historical data from NIWA shows average highs of 19.5°C, but recent cool spells—driven by a lingering low-pressure system—have shaved 1-2°C off early autumn expectations, boosting lower outcomes over 20°C+ (21.5%). ECMWF ensemble runs converge on 18-20°C, with low dispersion indicating high confidence; traders eye tomorrow's 5pm update for potential shifts as upper-air patterns stabilize. Baseline uncertainty from coastal sea breezes keeps tails thin for extremes below 17°C.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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