The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHolborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?
Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Green Vote Share?
25-30% 32%
30-35 % 24%
20-25 % 22%
<20 % 17%
NEU
NEU
8. Okt. 2026
<20 %
17%
20-25 %
22%
25-30%
32%
30-35 %
24%
35-40 %
11%
40 %+
5%
25-30% 32%
30-35 % 24%
20-25 % 22%
<20 % 17%
NEU
NEU
8. Okt. 2026
<20 %
$349 Vol.
17%
20-25 %
$114 Vol.
22%
25-30%
$273 Vol.
32%
30-35 %
$132 Vol.
24%
35-40 %
$113 Vol.
11%
40 %+
$120 Vol.
5%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Markt eröffnet: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volumen
$1,103Enddatum
8. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volumen
$1,103Enddatum
8. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October features Green Party leader Zack Polanski challenging Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali for the long-held Labour seat vacated by Keir Starmer. Traders see the Green vote share clustering in the mid-20s to mid-30s range because recent Camden local elections showed the Greens closing sharply on Labour with roughly 27 percent support, bolstered by Polanski’s selection on 11 September, Andrew Feinstein’s endorsement, and intensive doorstep campaigning. Labour retains organizational advantages and benefits from national trends under new leadership, keeping the race competitive rather than a Green breakthrough. Other parties remain marginal, so vote consolidation between the two main contenders will determine whether the Green share exceeds or falls short of recent local benchmarks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird der Kandidat der Labour-Partei bei der Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras 40-45 % der Stimmen erhalten?
33%
Ja
Wird der Labour-Kandidat die Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras mit einem Vorsprung von 15 % oder mehr gewinnen?
27%
Ja
Wird Sagal Abdi-Wali die Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras gewinnen?
78%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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