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icon for Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
Politik·Vereinigtes Königreich

Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?

icon for Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?
Politik·Vereinigtes Königreich

Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?

40-45 % 33%

35-40 % 22%

45-50 % 17%

50 %+. 17%

Polymarket
NEU

40-45 % 33%

35-40 % 22%

45-50 % 17%

50 %+. 17%

Polymarket
NEU
icon for <30%

<30%

$77 Vol.

11%

icon for 30-35%

30-35%

$76 Vol.

11%

icon for 35-40 %

35-40 %

$87 Vol.

22%

icon for 40-45 %

40-45 %

$232 Vol.

33%

icon for 45-50 %

45-50 %

$116 Vol.

17%

icon for 50 %+.

50 %+.

$208 Vol.

17%

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The October 8 by-election, triggered by Sir Keir Starmer’s September resignation, centers trader focus on Labour’s reduced but still leading position in a historically safe seat. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski and a crowded field of 15 candidates, including Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Recent local results and projections show Labour vote share slipping from the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with Greens gaining ground on issues such as housing and local representation. Lower by-election turnout and opposition fragmentation support market pricing that clusters around the 40-45% band as the consensus range, while wider spreads capture uncertainty over how protest or tactical voting will consolidate.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volumen
$796
Enddatum
8. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The October 8 by-election, triggered by Sir Keir Starmer’s September resignation, centers trader focus on Labour’s reduced but still leading position in a historically safe seat. Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali faces Green Party leader Zack Polanski and a crowded field of 15 candidates, including Conservatives and Liberal Democrats. Recent local results and projections show Labour vote share slipping from the 48.9% recorded in 2024, with Greens gaining ground on issues such as housing and local representation. Lower by-election turnout and opposition fragmentation support market pricing that clusters around the 40-45% band as the consensus range, while wider spreads capture uncertainty over how protest or tactical voting will consolidate.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election. The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Labour Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Labour Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volumen
$796
Enddatum
8. Okt. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Sep 14, 2026, 6:49 PM ET

Abwickler

0x69c47De9D...

Verwandte

icon for Wird der Kandidat der Grünen Partei bei der Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras 25-30% der Stimmen erhalten?

Wird der Kandidat der Grünen Partei bei der Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras 25-30% der Stimmen erhalten?

34%
Ja
icon for Wird der Labour-Kandidat die Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras mit einem Vorsprung von 15 % oder mehr gewinnen?

Wird der Labour-Kandidat die Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras mit einem Vorsprung von 15 % oder mehr gewinnen?

34%
Ja
icon for Wird Sagal Abdi-Wali die Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras gewinnen?

Wird Sagal Abdi-Wali die Nachwahl in Holborn und St Pancras gewinnen?

78%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 6 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „40-45 %" mit 33%, gefolgt von „35-40 %" mit 22%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 33¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Sep 14, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Holborn und St. Pancras By-Election: Labour Vote Share?" ist „40-45 %" mit 33%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 33% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „35-40 %" mit 22%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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