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How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Market icon

How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?

Mar 29

Apr 5

Mar 29

Apr 5

0 47%

>5 33.0%

1 31%

4 29%

Polymarket
NEW

0 47%

>5 33.0%

1 31%

4 29%

Polymarket
NEW

0

$143 Vol.

47%

1

$215 Vol.

31%

2

$71 Vol.

47%

3

$50 Vol.

42%

4

$24 Vol.

29%

5

$24 Vol.

33%

>5

$41 Vol.

33%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 5, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices zero magnitude 6.5+ earthquakes worldwide from March 30 to April 5 at 54% implied probability, the leading outcome, despite USGS data showing elevated recent activity with four such events in the past week alone—a M6.5 off Japan on March 26, M7.5 near Tonga on March 24, and M6.6s at the South Shetland Islands and Mid-Atlantic Ridge on March 20-21. This positioning reflects historical global baseline of roughly 1-1.5 M6.5+ quakes per week, Poisson-distributed seismicity, and typical quiescence following clusters on active fault systems like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Shares for exactly two (41%) or three (41%) events capture uncertainty around the mean, while >5 (9%) faces barriers from rarity. USGS real-time catalog provides continuous monitoring, with no short-term probabilistic forecasts available due to tectonic unpredictability.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „0" mit 47%, gefolgt von „2" mit 47%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 47¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 47% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

„How many 6.5 or above earthquakes March 30 - April 5?" ist ein neu erstellter Markt auf Polymarket, gestartet am Mar 27, 2026. Als früher Markt haben Sie die Gelegenheit, zu den ersten Händlern zu gehören, die die Quoten setzen und die ersten Preissignale des Marktes etablieren. Sie können diese Seite auch als Lesezeichen speichern, um Volumen und Handelsaktivität zu verfolgen, während der Markt an Fahrt gewinnt.

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