Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWie viele Tornados gab es im April in den USA?
290–319 100.0%
<140 <1%
140–169 <1%
170–199 <1%
$126,968 Vol.
$126,968 Vol.
<140
Nein
140–169
Nein
170–199
Nein
200–229
Nein
230–259
Nein
260–289
Nein
290–319
Ja
320–350
Nein
350+
Nein
290–319 100.0%
<140 <1%
140–169 <1%
170–199 <1%
$126,968 Vol.
$126,968 Vol.
<140
Nein
140–169
Nein
170–199
Nein
200–229
Nein
230–259
Nein
260–289
Nein
290–319
Ja
320–350
Nein
350+
Nein
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns near-certain implied probability (100%) to 290–319 US tornadoes in April 2026, backed by preliminary Storm Prediction Center (SPC) tallies from National Weather Service damage surveys confirming at least 292 events—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 182. Major drivers include the April 17–18 outbreak (86 tornadoes across the Upper Midwest), late-month sequences in the Plains, and favorable atmospheric patterns like high CAPE and wind shear fostering supercell development. Final National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) Storm Data publication, slated for early May, may incorporate minor adjustments from ongoing EF-scale verifications of weaker EF0 tornadoes, but reaching 350+ would require unprecedented late additions, while dropping below 290 seems improbable absent widespread disqualifications.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen