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Politik·US-Wahl

Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Republikanischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?

icon for Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Republikanischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?
Politik·US-Wahl

Wie viele Amtsinhaber des Republikanischen Hauses werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?

4-6 92.9%

7-9 5.1%

10-12 3.6%

>15 3.3%

Polymarket

$76,080 Vol.

4-6 92.9%

7-9 5.1%

10-12 3.6%

>15 3.3%

Polymarket

$76,080 Vol.

≤3

$38,821 Vol.

<1%

4-6

$19,264 Vol.

93%

7-9

$6,315 Vol.

5%

10-12

$5,051 Vol.

4%

13-15

$3,933 Vol.

2%

>15

$2,696 Vol.

3%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus strongly favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their primaries, reflecting three confirmed defeats amid a broader but contained wave of primary challenges.** Dan Crenshaw (TX-2), Thomas Massie (KY-4), and Andy Ogles (TN-5) were ousted in contests featuring Trump-aligned or state-level opposition, consistent with elevated but not unprecedented incumbent turnover outside redistricting years. Most 2026 Republican primaries have concluded, leaving few remaining opportunities for additional losses and aligning the outcome range with historical postwar averages adjusted for this cycle’s dynamics. Scenarios that could shift the result include late surprises in any unresolved districts or coordinated challenges producing one or two extra upsets, though the current pace of results makes outcomes outside 4-6 less probable.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$76,080
Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Trader consensus strongly favors 4-6 Republican House incumbents losing their primaries, reflecting three confirmed defeats amid a broader but contained wave of primary challenges.** Dan Crenshaw (TX-2), Thomas Massie (KY-4), and Andy Ogles (TN-5) were ousted in contests featuring Trump-aligned or state-level opposition, consistent with elevated but not unprecedented incumbent turnover outside redistricting years. Most 2026 Republican primaries have concluded, leaving few remaining opportunities for additional losses and aligning the outcome range with historical postwar averages adjusted for this cycle’s dynamics. Scenarios that could shift the result include late surprises in any unresolved districts or coordinated challenges producing one or two extra upsets, though the current pace of results makes outcomes outside 4-6 less probable.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.

Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$76,080
Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

Verwandte

icon for Werden demokratische Abgeordnete im Repräsentantenhaus bei den Vorwahlen im Wahlzyklus 2026 in nicht zwischen zehn und zwölf Fällen gewinnen?

Werden demokratische Abgeordnete im Repräsentantenhaus bei den Vorwahlen im Wahlzyklus 2026 in nicht zwischen zehn und zwölf Fällen gewinnen?

43%
Ja
icon for Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?

Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?

96%
Ja
icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 weniger als 22 Gouverneursposten innehaben?

Wird die Republikanische Partei nach den Zwischenwahlen 2026 weniger als 22 Gouverneursposten innehaben?

28%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

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