**Republican House primary losses remain limited this cycle, with three confirmed defeats so far—Thomas Massie (KY-4), Andy Ogles (TN-5), and Dan Crenshaw (TX-2)—amid an elevated but contained overall turnover rate.** Reports indicate nine total House incumbents (across parties) have lost renomination, the highest outside a redistricting year since 1970, driven by targeted challenges, redistricting effects in states like Texas, and intra-party dynamics rather than a broad wave. Most Republican incumbents continue to secure renomination easily in safe districts, keeping the total in the 4-6 range as the clear market consensus. Remaining primaries and any late-cycle developments, such as additional high-profile Trump-backed efforts or unexpected district-specific backlash, could push the number higher. Historical precedent and the current pace of defeats make outcomes outside 4-6 far less likely without a sharp escalation in contested races.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4-6 93.1%
7-9 4.7%
10-12 3.5%
13-15 2.5%
$76,054 Vol.
$76,054 Vol.
≤3
1%
4-6
93%
7-9
5%
10-12
4%
13-15
3%
>15
1%
4-6 93.1%
7-9 4.7%
10-12 3.5%
13-15 2.5%
$76,054 Vol.
$76,054 Vol.
≤3
$38,821 Vol.
1%
4-6
$19,258 Vol.
93%
7-9
$6,295 Vol.
5%
10-12
$5,051 Vol.
4%
13-15
$3,933 Vol.
3%
>15
$2,696 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Republican House primary losses remain limited this cycle, with three confirmed defeats so far—Thomas Massie (KY-4), Andy Ogles (TN-5), and Dan Crenshaw (TX-2)—amid an elevated but contained overall turnover rate.** Reports indicate nine total House incumbents (across parties) have lost renomination, the highest outside a redistricting year since 1970, driven by targeted challenges, redistricting effects in states like Texas, and intra-party dynamics rather than a broad wave. Most Republican incumbents continue to secure renomination easily in safe districts, keeping the total in the 4-6 range as the clear market consensus.
Remaining primaries and any late-cycle developments, such as additional high-profile Trump-backed efforts or unexpected district-specific backlash, could push the number higher. Historical precedent and the current pace of defeats make outcomes outside 4-6 far less likely without a sharp escalation in contested races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
Volumen
$76,054Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.**Republican House primary losses remain limited this cycle, with three confirmed defeats so far—Thomas Massie (KY-4), Andy Ogles (TN-5), and Dan Crenshaw (TX-2)—amid an elevated but contained overall turnover rate.** Reports indicate nine total House incumbents (across parties) have lost renomination, the highest outside a redistricting year since 1970, driven by targeted challenges, redistricting effects in states like Texas, and intra-party dynamics rather than a broad wave. Most Republican incumbents continue to secure renomination easily in safe districts, keeping the total in the 4-6 range as the clear market consensus.
Remaining primaries and any late-cycle developments, such as additional high-profile Trump-backed efforts or unexpected district-specific backlash, could push the number higher. Historical precedent and the current pace of defeats make outcomes outside 4-6 far less likely without a sharp escalation in contested races.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$76,054Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...**Republican House primary losses remain limited this cycle, with three confirmed defeats so far—Thomas Massie (KY-4), Andy Ogles (TN-5), and Dan Crenshaw (TX-2)—amid an elevated but contained overall turnover rate.** Reports indicate nine total House incumbents (across parties) have lost renomination, the highest outside a redistricting year since 1970, driven by targeted challenges, redistricting effects in states like Texas, and intra-party dynamics rather than a broad wave. Most Republican incumbents continue to secure renomination easily in safe districts, keeping the total in the 4-6 range as the clear market consensus. Remaining primaries and any late-cycle developments, such as additional high-profile Trump-backed efforts or unexpected district-specific backlash, could push the number higher. Historical precedent and the current pace of defeats make outcomes outside 4-6 far less likely without a sharp escalation in contested races.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Werden demokratische Amtsinhaber im Repräsentantenhaus in sieben bis neun Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 nicht gewinnen?
54%
Ja
Werden die amtierenden republikanischen Senatoren bei genau drei Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 nicht gewinnen?
33%
Ja
Werden alle amtierenden demokratischen Senatoren in der Wahlrunde 2026 ihre Nominierungswahlen gewinnen?
77%
Ja
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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