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icon for Wie viele Amtsinhaber des demokratischen Senats werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?
Politik·US-Wahl

Wie viele Amtsinhaber des demokratischen Senats werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?

icon for Wie viele Amtsinhaber des demokratischen Senats werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?
Politik·US-Wahl

Wie viele Amtsinhaber des demokratischen Senats werden ihre Vorwahl nicht gewinnen?

Polymarket

$30,783 Vol.

Polymarket

$30,783 Vol.

0

$10,157 Vol.

100%

1

$2,317 Vol.

1%

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 face minimal or no organized opposition in their primaries, reinforcing trader consensus around zero losses. Established officeholders have either run unopposed or defeated low-profile challengers, consistent with historical patterns of strong primary performance by sitting senators. Recent results, including victories by John Hickenlooper in Colorado and Ed Markey over a generational challenger in Massachusetts, align with this trend, while several seats involve open contests that remove incumbents from the equation entirely. A small number of remaining primaries could still produce surprises if late developments shift voter turnout or fundraising dynamics in states with higher-profile contests.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$30,783
Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Most Democratic Senate incumbents seeking renomination in 2026 face minimal or no organized opposition in their primaries, reinforcing trader consensus around zero losses. Established officeholders have either run unopposed or defeated low-profile challengers, consistent with historical patterns of strong primary performance by sitting senators. Recent results, including victories by John Hickenlooper in Colorado and Ed Markey over a generational challenger in Massachusetts, align with this trend, while several seats involve open contests that remove incumbents from the equation entirely. A small number of remaining primaries could still produce surprises if late developments shift voter turnout or fundraising dynamics in states with higher-profile contests.

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.

This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.

An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.

This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.

A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election.

The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September. This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic Senate incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections. An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered. This market will resolve based on the results of all Senate nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democratic or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus prior to the conclusion of the relevant nominating election. The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$30,783
Markt eröffnet
Jan 14, 2026, 2:52 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Werden demokratische Abgeordnete im Repräsentantenhaus bei den Vorwahlen im Wahlzyklus 2026 in nicht zwischen zehn und zwölf Fällen gewinnen?

Werden demokratische Abgeordnete im Repräsentantenhaus bei den Vorwahlen im Wahlzyklus 2026 in nicht zwischen zehn und zwölf Fällen gewinnen?

86%
Ja
icon for Werden amtierende Republikaner im Repräsentantenhaus in der Wahlrunde 2026 in vier bis sechs Vorwahlen nicht gewinnen?

Werden amtierende Republikaner im Repräsentantenhaus in der Wahlrunde 2026 in vier bis sechs Vorwahlen nicht gewinnen?

97%
Ja
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32%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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