India's recent CPI prints, rising to 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June after lower readings earlier in the year, combined with RBI upward revisions to its FY27 average forecast at 5.0-5.1%, have anchored trader consensus around elevated levels. Food inflation climbing above 5% amid monsoon variability and transport costs reflecting global energy pressures have reinforced expectations that the 2026 annual average will exceed 4.5%. With the central bank maintaining a neutral stance at a 5.25% repo rate and no immediate disinflation signals from core measures, market-implied odds heavily favor the 4.50%+ outcome while assigning limited probability to sub-4% ranges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,50 %+ 80%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 14.5%
<0,75 % 3.9%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % 2.6%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
1%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
3%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
15%
4,50 %+
80%
4,50 %+ 80%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 14.5%
<0,75 % 3.9%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % 2.6%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
1%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
3%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
15%
4,50 %+
80%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...India's recent CPI prints, rising to 4.45% in July 2026 and 4.38% in June after lower readings earlier in the year, combined with RBI upward revisions to its FY27 average forecast at 5.0-5.1%, have anchored trader consensus around elevated levels. Food inflation climbing above 5% amid monsoon variability and transport costs reflecting global energy pressures have reinforced expectations that the 2026 annual average will exceed 4.5%. With the central bank maintaining a neutral stance at a 5.25% repo rate and no immediate disinflation signals from core measures, market-implied odds heavily favor the 4.50%+ outcome while assigning limited probability to sub-4% ranges.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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