Recent July 2026 CPI data showing 4.45% year-over-year inflation, up from 4.38% in June, has reinforced trader positioning toward the 4.50%+ outcome at 79.5% implied probability on Polymarket. Elevated food inflation at 5.52%, combined with transportation cost pass-through and unfavorable base effects, is expected to push readings above 5% later this year. RBI projections averaging near 5% for FY2027, alongside analyst estimates of 4.8-5.1%, reflect persistent pressures from monsoon variability and global energy risks. These factors have consolidated market-implied odds around the higher band, with limited support evident for sub-4% scenarios amid current momentum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert4,50 %+ 80%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 13.3%
<0,75 % 3.6%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % 2.5%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
1%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
2%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
13%
4,50 %+
80%
4,50 %+ 80%
3,75 % bis 4,49 % 13.3%
<0,75 % 3.6%
3,00 % bis 3,74 % 2.5%
$78,025 Vol.
$78,025 Vol.
<0,75 %
4%
0,75 % bis 1,49 %
<1%
1,50 % bis 2,24 %
1%
2,25 % bis 2,99 %
1%
3,00 % bis 3,74 %
2%
3,75 % bis 4,49 %
13%
4,50 %+
80%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 CPI data showing 4.45% year-over-year inflation, up from 4.38% in June, has reinforced trader positioning toward the 4.50%+ outcome at 79.5% implied probability on Polymarket. Elevated food inflation at 5.52%, combined with transportation cost pass-through and unfavorable base effects, is expected to push readings above 5% later this year. RBI projections averaging near 5% for FY2027, alongside analyst estimates of 4.8-5.1%, reflect persistent pressures from monsoon variability and global energy risks. These factors have consolidated market-implied odds around the higher band, with limited support evident for sub-4% scenarios amid current momentum.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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