Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, anchors the strong position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around R+26 that has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Limited Democratic challengers, including Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, face structural barriers in voter registration, fundraising, and district composition following the 2026 map adjustments after the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. The November 3 open primary format and historical turnout patterns reinforce trader consensus around a Republican hold. Low-probability shifts could arise from a national Democratic surge, late scandal involving the incumbent, or unexpectedly high Democratic mobilization, though no such developments have materialized to date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertLA-04 Wahlsieger
LA-04 Wahlsieger
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
95%
Demokratische Partei
6%
$11,997 Vol.
$11,997 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$3,671 Vol.
95%
Demokratische Partei
$8,326 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, anchors the strong position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around R+26 that has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Limited Democratic challengers, including Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, face structural barriers in voter registration, fundraising, and district composition following the 2026 map adjustments after the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. The November 3 open primary format and historical turnout patterns reinforce trader consensus around a Republican hold. Low-probability shifts could arise from a national Democratic surge, late scandal involving the incumbent, or unexpectedly high Democratic mobilization, though no such developments have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$11,997Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, anchors the strong position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around R+26 that has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Limited Democratic challengers, including Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, face structural barriers in voter registration, fundraising, and district composition following the 2026 map adjustments after the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. The November 3 open primary format and historical turnout patterns reinforce trader consensus around a Republican hold. Low-probability shifts could arise from a national Democratic surge, late scandal involving the incumbent, or unexpectedly high Democratic mobilization, though no such developments have materialized to date.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$11,997Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Johnson, the Speaker of the House, anchors the strong position in Louisiana's 4th congressional district, a seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index around R+26 that has delivered consistent Republican margins exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Limited Democratic challengers, including Conrad Cable and Matthew Gromlich, face structural barriers in voter registration, fundraising, and district composition following the 2026 map adjustments after the Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais. The November 3 open primary format and historical turnout patterns reinforce trader consensus around a Republican hold. Low-probability shifts could arise from a national Democratic surge, late scandal involving the incumbent, or unexpectedly high Democratic mobilization, though no such developments have materialized to date.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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