Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds over southeast England, supporting the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for a London minimum of 13°C or below on August 1. With outcomes clustered tightly between 13–19°C, traders are weighing subtle differences in cloud cover, dew point, and urban heat island effects that can shift overnight lows by 2–3°C. Historical August minima average near 15°C, but current guidance shows modest high pressure influence that may suppress temperatures without strong cold advection. New model updates and observations through July 31 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in London am 1. August?
Niedrigste Temperatur in London am 1. August?
16°C 54%
15°C 31%
17°C 26%
14°C 23%
NEU
NEU
1. Aug. 2026
13°C oder weniger
16%
14°C
23%
15°C
31%
16°C
54%
17°C
26%
18°C
18%
19°C
15%
20°C
9%
21°C
8%
22°C
7%
23°C oder höher
<1%
16°C 54%
15°C 31%
17°C 26%
14°C 23%
NEU
NEU
1. Aug. 2026
13°C oder weniger
$8 Vol.
16%
14°C
$0 Vol.
23%
15°C
$0 Vol.
31%
16°C
$0 Vol.
54%
17°C
$0 Vol.
26%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$8 Vol.
15%
20°C
$32 Vol.
9%
21°C
$32 Vol.
8%
22°C
$32 Vol.
7%
23°C oder höher
$10 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds over southeast England, supporting the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for a London minimum of 13°C or below on August 1. With outcomes clustered tightly between 13–19°C, traders are weighing subtle differences in cloud cover, dew point, and urban heat island effects that can shift overnight lows by 2–3°C. Historical August minima average near 15°C, but current guidance shows modest high pressure influence that may suppress temperatures without strong cold advection. New model updates and observations through July 31 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$120Enddatum
1. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds over southeast England, supporting the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for a London minimum of 13°C or below on August 1. With outcomes clustered tightly between 13–19°C, traders are weighing subtle differences in cloud cover, dew point, and urban heat island effects that can shift overnight lows by 2–3°C. Historical August minima average near 15°C, but current guidance shows modest high pressure influence that may suppress temperatures without strong cold advection. New model updates and observations through July 31 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$120Enddatum
1. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 30, 2026, 12:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model runs from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate potential for enhanced radiative cooling under clearer skies and lighter winds over southeast England, supporting the market's leading 46.5% implied probability for a London minimum of 13°C or below on August 1. With outcomes clustered tightly between 13–19°C, traders are weighing subtle differences in cloud cover, dew point, and urban heat island effects that can shift overnight lows by 2–3°C. Historical August minima average near 15°C, but current guidance shows modest high pressure influence that may suppress temperatures without strong cold advection. New model updates and observations through July 31 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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