Masoud Pezeshkian remains Iran's president in mid-2026 after navigating the 2026 US-Israel conflict and Supreme Leader transition, with Mojtaba Khamenei named successor in March. Traders assign only a 26% chance he leaves office by December 31 and near-zero probability by June 30, reflecting his survival amid wartime pressures despite repeated unconfirmed resignation reports. In late May, outlets cited a letter to the Supreme Leader citing IRGC dominance over decision-making, but his office dismissed these as false, and he has continued public statements on diplomacy and energy policy. Hardline criticism and his reduced role in key security matters define the current environment, with no scheduled electoral trigger before his term ends in 2028. Recent de-escalation signals and ongoing US talks represent the main variables that could alter removal timelines.