Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 partisan voter index and encompasses Democratic strongholds in Howard and Anne Arundel counties along with Annapolis. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, first elected in 2024, secured her party’s nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote against several challengers. Republican nominee Berney Flowers, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, emerged from a fragmented primary field. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95.5 percent implied probability of victory on November 3, reflecting the district’s structural tilt, the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, and limited recent polling movement. A national Republican wave, late-breaking scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from historical patterns in this seat.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMD-03 Wahlsieger
MD-03 Wahlsieger
$45,762 Vol.
$45,762 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
96%
Republikanische Partei
5%
$45,762 Vol.
$45,762 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$20,975 Vol.
96%
Republikanische Partei
$24,788 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 partisan voter index and encompasses Democratic strongholds in Howard and Anne Arundel counties along with Annapolis. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, first elected in 2024, secured her party’s nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote against several challengers. Republican nominee Berney Flowers, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, emerged from a fragmented primary field. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95.5 percent implied probability of victory on November 3, reflecting the district’s structural tilt, the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, and limited recent polling movement. A national Republican wave, late-breaking scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from historical patterns in this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$45,762Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 partisan voter index and encompasses Democratic strongholds in Howard and Anne Arundel counties along with Annapolis. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, first elected in 2024, secured her party’s nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote against several challengers. Republican nominee Berney Flowers, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, emerged from a fragmented primary field. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95.5 percent implied probability of victory on November 3, reflecting the district’s structural tilt, the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, and limited recent polling movement. A national Republican wave, late-breaking scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from historical patterns in this seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$45,762Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 3rd congressional district carries a D+12 partisan voter index and encompasses Democratic strongholds in Howard and Anne Arundel counties along with Annapolis. Incumbent Democrat Sarah Elfreth, first elected in 2024, secured her party’s nomination in the June 2026 primary with roughly 75 percent of the vote against several challengers. Republican nominee Berney Flowers, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel, emerged from a fragmented primary field. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 95.5 percent implied probability of victory on November 3, reflecting the district’s structural tilt, the incumbent’s established fundraising and name recognition, and limited recent polling movement. A national Republican wave, late-breaking scandal, or unusually low Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require substantial deviation from historical patterns in this seat.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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