Maryland’s 4th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+39 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022, faces a Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, against limited challengers before the November general election, where Republican opposition remains minimal. Traders price the Democratic outcome at 92.3 percent based on these structural factors, historical margins exceeding 80 percent, and the absence of competitive dynamics that could shift the race. A late scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Republican recruitment could narrow the margin, though such developments have not materialized in recent cycles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMD-04 Wahlsieger
MD-04 Wahlsieger
$27,153 Vol.
$27,153 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
92%
Republikanische Partei
6%
$27,153 Vol.
$27,153 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$8,107 Vol.
92%
Republikanische Partei
$19,046 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+39 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022, faces a Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, against limited challengers before the November general election, where Republican opposition remains minimal. Traders price the Democratic outcome at 92.3 percent based on these structural factors, historical margins exceeding 80 percent, and the absence of competitive dynamics that could shift the race. A late scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Republican recruitment could narrow the margin, though such developments have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$27,153Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 4th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+39 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022, faces a Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, against limited challengers before the November general election, where Republican opposition remains minimal. Traders price the Democratic outcome at 92.3 percent based on these structural factors, historical margins exceeding 80 percent, and the absence of competitive dynamics that could shift the race. A late scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Republican recruitment could narrow the margin, though such developments have not materialized in recent cycles.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$27,153Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 4th congressional district maintains a strongly Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+39 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent Solid Democratic ratings from major forecasters. Incumbent Democrat Glenn Ivey, first elected in 2022, faces a Democratic primary on June 23, 2026, against limited challengers before the November general election, where Republican opposition remains minimal. Traders price the Democratic outcome at 92.3 percent based on these structural factors, historical margins exceeding 80 percent, and the absence of competitive dynamics that could shift the race. A late scandal, health issue affecting the incumbent, or unusually strong Republican recruitment could narrow the margin, though such developments have not materialized in recent cycles.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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