Jeremy Moss secured the Democratic nomination for Michigan’s 11th Congressional District in the August 2026 primary and enters the November general election as the clear frontrunner against Republican Ethan Baker. The open seat, previously held by Democrat Haley Stevens, lies entirely in Oakland County and carries a strong Democratic lean reflected in recent election results and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as safe or solid for the party. Moss’s primary victory, state legislative experience, and fundraising edge have reinforced trader consensus around a Democratic hold. Baker, the unopposed Republican nominee and Troy mayor, faces structural headwinds in a district where Democratic candidates have consistently prevailed by wide margins. Late developments such as unusually low turnout, a major scandal, or unexpected national political shifts could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to limited pathways for an upset.