Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market's extreme thresholds—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or major meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in the first seven months of 2026. El Niño conditions are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity according to NOAA and Colorado State forecasts, while seismic and volcanic monitoring by the USGS shows no elevated signals meeting resolution criteria. Ongoing drought and heat events remain below the defined catastrophe levels. With roughly five months left, the absence of recent precursors and typical annual probabilities under 25% for any single qualifying event continue to anchor the market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
$232,597 Vol.
$232,597 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$232,597 Vol.
$232,597 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market's extreme thresholds—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or major meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in the first seven months of 2026. El Niño conditions are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity according to NOAA and Colorado State forecasts, while seismic and volcanic monitoring by the USGS shows no elevated signals meeting resolution criteria. Ongoing drought and heat events remain below the defined catastrophe levels. With roughly five months left, the absence of recent precursors and typical annual probabilities under 25% for any single qualifying event continue to anchor the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$232,597Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market's extreme thresholds—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or major meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in the first seven months of 2026. El Niño conditions are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity according to NOAA and Colorado State forecasts, while seismic and volcanic monitoring by the USGS shows no elevated signals meeting resolution criteria. Ongoing drought and heat events remain below the defined catastrophe levels. With roughly five months left, the absence of recent precursors and typical annual probabilities under 25% for any single qualifying event continue to anchor the market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$232,597Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favoring "No" at 77.5% reflects the low historical frequency of the market's extreme thresholds—Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfalls, VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 8.5+ magnitude earthquakes, or major meteor strikes—none of which have occurred in the first seven months of 2026. El Niño conditions are suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity according to NOAA and Colorado State forecasts, while seismic and volcanic monitoring by the USGS shows no elevated signals meeting resolution criteria. Ongoing drought and heat events remain below the defined catastrophe levels. With roughly five months left, the absence of recent precursors and typical annual probabilities under 25% for any single qualifying event continue to anchor the market-implied odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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