Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. These thresholds represent low-probability extremes: Category 5 landfalls average fewer than one per decade in the U.S., while 8.5+ earthquakes and VEI 6 eruptions occur on multi-decadal to centennial timescales according to USGS and Smithsonian records. With the Atlantic hurricane season’s peak passed and no major volcanic or seismic signals reported by monitoring agencies, the remaining window offers limited opportunity for such events. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of these climatological and geophysical baselines amid ongoing but sub-threshold activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNaturkatastrophe 2026?
Naturkatastrophe 2026?
Ja
17% Chance
$246,887 Vol.
$246,887 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
Ja
17% Chance
$246,887 Vol.
$246,887 Vol.
28. Feb. 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. These thresholds represent low-probability extremes: Category 5 landfalls average fewer than one per decade in the U.S., while 8.5+ earthquakes and VEI 6 eruptions occur on multi-decadal to centennial timescales according to USGS and Smithsonian records. With the Atlantic hurricane season’s peak passed and no major volcanic or seismic signals reported by monitoring agencies, the remaining window offers limited opportunity for such events. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of these climatological and geophysical baselines amid ongoing but sub-threshold activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Markt eröffnet: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volumen
$246,887Enddatum
1. März 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. These thresholds represent low-probability extremes: Category 5 landfalls average fewer than one per decade in the U.S., while 8.5+ earthquakes and VEI 6 eruptions occur on multi-decadal to centennial timescales according to USGS and Smithsonian records. With the Atlantic hurricane season’s peak passed and no major volcanic or seismic signals reported by monitoring agencies, the remaining window offers limited opportunity for such events. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of these climatological and geophysical baselines amid ongoing but sub-threshold activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volumen
$246,887Enddatum
1. März 2027Markt eröffnet
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 83.5% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, driven by the continued absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10 kt+ meteor strike through late September. These thresholds represent low-probability extremes: Category 5 landfalls average fewer than one per decade in the U.S., while 8.5+ earthquakes and VEI 6 eruptions occur on multi-decadal to centennial timescales according to USGS and Smithsonian records. With the Atlantic hurricane season’s peak passed and no major volcanic or seismic signals reported by monitoring agencies, the remaining window offers limited opportunity for such events. Market-implied odds reflect traders’ assessment of these climatological and geophysical baselines amid ongoing but sub-threshold activity.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen