New Jersey's 1st congressional district maintains a solid Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voter index and registration edge of roughly 44% Democratic to 19% Republican. Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross advanced through the June 2 primary without significant opposition and holds substantial fundraising advantages heading into the November 3 general election against the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic win. A sustained national Republican surge, unexpected primary developments, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for an upset.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNJ-01 Wahlsieger
NJ-01 Wahlsieger
$21,152 Vol.
$21,152 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
93%
Republikanische Partei
7%
$21,152 Vol.
$21,152 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$15,025 Vol.
93%
Republikanische Partei
$6,127 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 1st congressional district maintains a solid Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voter index and registration edge of roughly 44% Democratic to 19% Republican. Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross advanced through the June 2 primary without significant opposition and holds substantial fundraising advantages heading into the November 3 general election against the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic win. A sustained national Republican surge, unexpected primary developments, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$21,152Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 1st congressional district maintains a solid Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voter index and registration edge of roughly 44% Democratic to 19% Republican. Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross advanced through the June 2 primary without significant opposition and holds substantial fundraising advantages heading into the November 3 general election against the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic win. A sustained national Republican surge, unexpected primary developments, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,152Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey's 1st congressional district maintains a solid Democratic lean, reflected in its D+10 partisan voter index and registration edge of roughly 44% Democratic to 19% Republican. Incumbent Democrat Donald Norcross advanced through the June 2 primary without significant opposition and holds substantial fundraising advantages heading into the November 3 general election against the Republican nominee. Nonpartisan ratings classify the seat as safe or solid Democratic, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic win. A sustained national Republican surge, unexpected primary developments, or late-cycle events involving the incumbent could narrow the margin, though structural factors limit realistic pathways for an upset.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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