Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, holds a commanding position heading into the November 2026 general election. The district carries a D+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, reflecting its consistent Democratic tilt in recent presidential cycles, and Conaway faced no primary opposition after winning the seat previously. Republican nominee Michael McGuire emerged from a divided June 2 primary but enters a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 90.5% implied probability, underscoring the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration patterns. A national Republican surge or unusually high turnout in Republican strongholds within the district could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require significant deviation from historical baselines in this suburban-leaning seat.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNJ-03 Wahlsieger
NJ-03 Wahlsieger
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
91%
Republikanische Partei
7%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$771 Vol.
91%
Republikanische Partei
$1,362 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, holds a commanding position heading into the November 2026 general election. The district carries a D+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, reflecting its consistent Democratic tilt in recent presidential cycles, and Conaway faced no primary opposition after winning the seat previously. Republican nominee Michael McGuire emerged from a divided June 2 primary but enters a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 90.5% implied probability, underscoring the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration patterns. A national Republican surge or unusually high turnout in Republican strongholds within the district could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require significant deviation from historical baselines in this suburban-leaning seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$2,133Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, holds a commanding position heading into the November 2026 general election. The district carries a D+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, reflecting its consistent Democratic tilt in recent presidential cycles, and Conaway faced no primary opposition after winning the seat previously. Republican nominee Michael McGuire emerged from a divided June 2 primary but enters a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 90.5% implied probability, underscoring the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration patterns. A national Republican surge or unusually high turnout in Republican strongholds within the district could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require significant deviation from historical baselines in this suburban-leaning seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$2,133Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Herb Conaway, the Democratic incumbent in New Jersey's 3rd congressional district, holds a commanding position heading into the November 2026 general election. The district carries a D+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, reflecting its consistent Democratic tilt in recent presidential cycles, and Conaway faced no primary opposition after winning the seat previously. Republican nominee Michael McGuire emerged from a divided June 2 primary but enters a race rated Solid Democratic by forecasters. Traders assign the Democratic Party a 90.5% implied probability, underscoring the structural advantages of incumbency, fundraising, and voter registration patterns. A national Republican surge or unusually high turnout in Republican strongholds within the district could narrow the margin, though such shifts would require significant deviation from historical baselines in this suburban-leaning seat.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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