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Wahlen·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

Market icon
Wahlen·Trump

NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory

Mejia 20-25% 88%

Mejia <20% 14%

Mejia 35-40% 2.9%

Mejia 25-30% 2.6%

Polymarket

$4,507 Vol.

Mejia 20-25% 88%

Mejia <20% 14%

Mejia 35-40% 2.9%

Mejia 25-30% 2.6%

Polymarket

$4,507 Vol.

Mejia 40%+

$231 Vol.

2%

Mejia 35-40%

$808 Vol.

3%

Mejia 30-35%

$896 Vol.

3%

Mejia 25-30%

$725 Vol.

3%

Mejia 20-25%

$619 Vol.

88%

Mejia <20%

$686 Vol.

14%

Other

$543 Vol.

<1%

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 20-25% margin of victory for Democrat Analilia Mejia in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, reflecting pre-election polling showing her up 17 points (53-36%) over Republican Joe Hathaway and early vote tallies from April 16 exceeding 25 points before narrowing. The district, which went D+8 for Harris and D+15 for outgoing Rep. Mikie Sherrill in 2024, saw Democratic overperformance typical of recent House special elections, bolstered by Mejia's two-to-one fundraising edge and union endorsements like Teamsters Joint Council 73. Late-count resistance emerged in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston and Millburn amid concerns over Mejia's progressive Israel stance, tightening the projected margin to around 20 points with 95% reporting, positioning the 20-25% bin as the skin-in-the-game assessment ahead of certification.

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$4,507
Enddatum
16. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a 20-25% margin of victory for Democrat Analilia Mejia in New Jersey's 11th Congressional District special election, reflecting pre-election polling showing her up 17 points (53-36%) over Republican Joe Hathaway and early vote tallies from April 16 exceeding 25 points before narrowing. The district, which went D+8 for Harris and D+15 for outgoing Rep. Mikie Sherrill in 2024, saw Democratic overperformance typical of recent House special elections, bolstered by Mejia's two-to-one fundraising edge and union endorsements like Teamsters Joint Council 73. Late-count resistance emerged in Jewish-heavy towns like Livingston and Millburn amid concerns over Mejia's progressive Israel stance, tightening the projected margin to around 20 points with 95% reporting, positioning the 20-25% bin as the skin-in-the-game assessment ahead of certification.

The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$4,507
Enddatum
16. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 12:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The special election for the seat for New Jersey's 11th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives is currently scheduled to take place on April 16, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.nj.gov/state/. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Mejia 20-25%" mit 88%, gefolgt von „Mejia <20%" mit 14%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 88¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 88% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „NJ-11 Special Election: Margin of Victory" ist „Mejia 20-25%" mit 88%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 88% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Mejia <20%" mit 14%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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