**Incumbent Steve Scalise (R) faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat he carried with 66.8% in 2024 and that leans roughly 25 points Republican.** The November 3, 2026, contest uses Louisiana’s jungle primary format, requiring more than 50% to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Declared candidates include Scalise, a second Republican (Randall Arrington), Democrat Lauren Jewett, and one independent. Recent redistricting following the Supreme Court’s ruling in *Callais v. Louisiana* and subsequent map adjustments prompted re-qualification by candidates, but the district’s partisan composition remains strongly favorable to Republicans. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with historical patterns in which the incumbent has secured a first-round majority. Trader pricing at 61% for an outright winner reflects this baseline strength tempered by the possibility of vote fragmentation among multiple candidates on a single ballot. No major late developments have altered the structural dynamics ahead of the fall election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
94% Chance
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Ja
94% Chance
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Incumbent Steve Scalise (R) faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat he carried with 66.8% in 2024 and that leans roughly 25 points Republican.** The November 3, 2026, contest uses Louisiana’s jungle primary format, requiring more than 50% to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Declared candidates include Scalise, a second Republican (Randall Arrington), Democrat Lauren Jewett, and one independent.
Recent redistricting following the Supreme Court’s ruling in *Callais v. Louisiana* and subsequent map adjustments prompted re-qualification by candidates, but the district’s partisan composition remains strongly favorable to Republicans. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with historical patterns in which the incumbent has secured a first-round majority. Trader pricing at 61% for an outright winner reflects this baseline strength tempered by the possibility of vote fragmentation among multiple candidates on a single ballot. No major late developments have altered the structural dynamics ahead of the fall election.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$1,161Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.**Incumbent Steve Scalise (R) faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat he carried with 66.8% in 2024 and that leans roughly 25 points Republican.** The November 3, 2026, contest uses Louisiana’s jungle primary format, requiring more than 50% to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Declared candidates include Scalise, a second Republican (Randall Arrington), Democrat Lauren Jewett, and one independent.
Recent redistricting following the Supreme Court’s ruling in *Callais v. Louisiana* and subsequent map adjustments prompted re-qualification by candidates, but the district’s partisan composition remains strongly favorable to Republicans. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with historical patterns in which the incumbent has secured a first-round majority. Trader pricing at 61% for an outright winner reflects this baseline strength tempered by the possibility of vote fragmentation among multiple candidates on a single ballot. No major late developments have altered the structural dynamics ahead of the fall election.
The first round of the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm LA-01 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the LA-01 House election.
Volumen
$1,161Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Steve Scalise (R) faces limited opposition in Louisiana’s 1st congressional district, a seat he carried with 66.8% in 2024 and that leans roughly 25 points Republican.** The November 3, 2026, contest uses Louisiana’s jungle primary format, requiring more than 50% to win outright and avoid a December 12 runoff. Declared candidates include Scalise, a second Republican (Randall Arrington), Democrat Lauren Jewett, and one independent. Recent redistricting following the Supreme Court’s ruling in *Callais v. Louisiana* and subsequent map adjustments prompted re-qualification by candidates, but the district’s partisan composition remains strongly favorable to Republicans. Forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican, consistent with historical patterns in which the incumbent has secured a first-round majority. Trader pricing at 61% for an outright winner reflects this baseline strength tempered by the possibility of vote fragmentation among multiple candidates on a single ballot. No major late developments have altered the structural dynamics ahead of the fall election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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