**The heavily Democratic character of Georgia’s 13th Congressional District (D+50 partisan lean), the death of longtime Rep. David Scott in April 2026, and the resulting special-election dynamics drove the 95% trader consensus that one candidate would clear 50% on July 28.** Four Democrats and two Republicans appeared on a single ballot under Georgia’s majority-rule system. Pre-election polling and historical special-election patterns in the Atlanta-area seat showed Democratic voters concentrating behind the top contenders (Marcye Scott and Everton Blair), while Republican support remained in the low single digits. This limited cross-party or third-party fragmentation made an outright win the baseline expectation rather than a fragmented field forcing an August 25 runoff. Late developments such as candidate withdrawals or turnout anomalies were viewed as the only realistic paths to a different outcome. The market therefore reflected skin-in-the-game consensus on the district’s structural Democratic strength and the absence of conditions that typically trigger runoffs.