The early 2027 Oscars adapted screenplay race remains wide open nine months before nominations, with trader consensus reflected in the cluster of films holding near-even implied probabilities around 50%. Recent festival momentum for The Black Ball, including its Cannes premiere and critical praise for its Lorca-inspired queer epic spanning decades, has positioned it as a leading contender alongside The Invite and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey, whose literary source material and director pedigree generate steady support. Project Hail Mary’s solid box-office and audience response for the Andy Weir adaptation adds further competition, while lower-odds titles like Dune: Part Three and Wildwood await stronger guild or precursor signals. Historical voting patterns favor prestige literary adaptations with clear campaign narratives, yet the field’s fluidity means late-year releases, streaming metrics, and awards-season reviews could quickly shift sentiment before the March ceremony.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Winner
The Black Ball 30%
The Invite 28%
The Odyssey 22%
All of a Sudden 7.0%
$28,460 Vol.
$28,460 Vol.
The Black Ball
30%
The Invite
28%
The Odyssey
22%
All of a Sudden
7%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
6%
Wildwood
6%
Project Hail Mary
5%
The Social Reckoning
5%
Ink
4%
Dune: Part Three
4%
Cry to Heaven
1%
Clarissa
1%
Saturn Return
1%
Toy Story 5
1%
The Whisper Man
1%
The Black Ball 30%
The Invite 28%
The Odyssey 22%
All of a Sudden 7.0%
$28,460 Vol.
$28,460 Vol.
The Black Ball
30%
The Invite
28%
The Odyssey
22%
All of a Sudden
7%
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
6%
Wildwood
6%
Project Hail Mary
5%
The Social Reckoning
5%
Ink
4%
Dune: Part Three
4%
Cry to Heaven
1%
Clarissa
1%
Saturn Return
1%
Toy Story 5
1%
The Whisper Man
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 6, 2026, 5:09 AM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay.
If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Abwickler
0x69c47de9d...The early 2027 Oscars adapted screenplay race remains wide open nine months before nominations, with trader consensus reflected in the cluster of films holding near-even implied probabilities around 50%. Recent festival momentum for The Black Ball, including its Cannes premiere and critical praise for its Lorca-inspired queer epic spanning decades, has positioned it as a leading contender alongside The Invite and Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey, whose literary source material and director pedigree generate steady support. Project Hail Mary’s solid box-office and audience response for the Andy Weir adaptation adds further competition, while lower-odds titles like Dune: Part Three and Wildwood await stronger guild or precursor signals. Historical voting patterns favor prestige literary adaptations with clear campaign narratives, yet the field’s fluidity means late-year releases, streaming metrics, and awards-season reviews could quickly shift sentiment before the March ceremony.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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