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Politik·Globale Wahlen

Peru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Marge des Sieges

Market icon
Politik·Globale Wahlen

Peru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Marge des Sieges

Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 81.4%

Keiko Fujimori <5% 18.5%

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%

Rafael López Aliaga 10-15% <1%

Polymarket

$309,833 Vol.

Keiko Fujimori 5%+ 81.4%

Keiko Fujimori <5% 18.5%

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+ <1%

Rafael López Aliaga 10-15% <1%

Polymarket

$309,833 Vol.

Wird Rafael López Aliaga die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit mindestens 15 % Vorsprung gewinnen? icon

Rafael López Aliaga 15%+

$8,336 Vol.

<1%

Wird Rafael López Aliaga die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit einem Vorsprung zwischen 10 % und 15 % gewinnen? icon

Rafael López Aliaga 10-15%

$10,022 Vol.

<1%

Wird Rafael López Aliaga die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit einem Vorsprung zwischen 5 % und 10 % gewinnen? icon

Rafael López Aliaga 5–10 %

$6,707 Vol.

<1%

Wird Rafael López Aliaga die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit weniger als 5 % gewinnen? icon

Rafael López Aliaga <5%

$11,482 Vol.

<1%

Wird Alfonso López Chau die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit mindestens 5 % Vorsprung gewinnen? icon

Alfonso López Chau 5%+

$6,911 Vol.

<1%

Wird Alfonso López Chau die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit weniger als 5 % gewinnen? icon

Alfonso López Chau <5%

$6,047 Vol.

<1%

Wird Keiko Fujimori die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit mindestens 5 % Vorsprung gewinnen? icon

Keiko Fujimori 5%+

$88,690 Vol.

81%

Wird Keiko Fujimori die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit weniger als 5 % Vorsprung gewinnen? icon

Keiko Fujimori <5%

$118,636 Vol.

19%

Wird Jorge Nieto die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit irgendeinem Vorsprung gewinnen? icon

Jorge Nieto

$6,335 Vol.

<1%

Wird Roberto Sánchez Palomino die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit irgendeinem Vorsprung gewinnen? icon

Roberto Sánchez Palomino

$10,618 Vol.

<1%

Wird Wolfgang Grozo die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit irgendeinem Vorsprung gewinnen? icon

Wolfgang Grozo

$4,420 Vol.

<1%

Wird Carlos Álvarez die erste Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 mit irgendeinem Vorsprung gewinnen? icon

Carlos Álvarez

$5,810 Vol.

<1%

Wird ein anderes Ergebnis in der ersten Runde der peruanischen Präsidentschaftswahlen 2026 eintreten? icon

Sonstiges

$25,818 Vol.

<1%

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 93% of ballots counted by Peru's electoral authority ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori holds a first-round plurality lead of about 5.1 percentage points (17.1%) over Roberto Sánchez Palomino (12.0%) in second place, ahead of Rafael López Aliaga (11.9%), solidifying trader consensus at 81.5% for her margin exceeding 5% and just 18.5% for under 5%. Early exit polls and partial tallies showed a tighter race, but Sánchez overtook López Aliaga as urban and rural votes stabilized Fujimori's edge in the fragmented 35-candidate field, setting up a June 7 runoff. Logistical delays from polling station issues extended counting amid unsubstantiated fraud claims, though transparency observers from OEA and EU affirm process integrity; remaining acts under review pose minimal risk to the gap.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$309,833
Enddatum
12. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.With over 93% of ballots counted by Peru's electoral authority ONPE as of April 16, Keiko Fujimori holds a first-round plurality lead of about 5.1 percentage points (17.1%) over Roberto Sánchez Palomino (12.0%) in second place, ahead of Rafael López Aliaga (11.9%), solidifying trader consensus at 81.5% for her margin exceeding 5% and just 18.5% for under 5%. Early exit polls and partial tallies showed a tighter race, but Sánchez overtook López Aliaga as urban and rural votes stabilized Fujimori's edge in the fragmented 35-candidate field, setting up a June 7 runoff. Logistical delays from polling station issues extended counting amid unsubstantiated fraud claims, though transparency observers from OEA and EU affirm process integrity; remaining acts under review pose minimal risk to the gap.

First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volumen
$309,833
Enddatum
12. Apr. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Mar 23, 2026, 2:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
First-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential elections. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/) If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Peru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 13 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Keiko Fujimori 5%+" mit 81%, gefolgt von „Keiko Fujimori <5%" mit 19%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 81¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 81% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Peru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $309.8K generiert, seit der Markt am Mar 23, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Peru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 13 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Peru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" ist „Keiko Fujimori 5%+" mit 81%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 81% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Keiko Fujimori <5%" mit 19%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Peru Präsidentschaftswahl erste Runde: Marge des Sieges" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.