Trader consensus on Polymarket's Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner market positions Rafael López Aliaga as the clear frontrunner at 55% implied probability, driven by his consistent leads in recent nationwide polls amid widespread dissatisfaction with President Dina Boluarte's administration and ongoing corruption scandals eroding support for establishment figures. Jorge Nieto follows at 42.5%, bolstered by his technocratic profile and appeal to moderate voters seeking stability ahead of the April 2026 vote. Lower probabilities for candidates like Roberto Sánchez Palomino (36%) and others around 26-27% reflect fragmented opposition fields, with right-wing populism gaining traction post-2021 turmoil. Recent poll shifts from Ipsos and Datum favor conservative outsiders, while no snap election calls alter the timeline, keeping focus on early momentum and potential consolidations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertJorge Nieto 85%
Wolfgang Grozo 54%
Alfonso López Chau 54%
Roberto Chiabra 53%

Jorge Nieto
85%

Wolfgang Grozo
54%

Alfonso López Chau
54%

Roberto Chiabra
53%

José Williams
53%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
53%

Marisol Pérez Tello
53%

Mario Vizcarra
53%

César Acuña
53%

José Luna
53%

Enrique Valderrama
53%

Ricardo Belmont
53%

Mesías Guevara
53%

Carlos Álvarez
52%

Rafael López Aliaga
55%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
36%

Yonhy Lescano
28%

Fiorella Molinelli
27%

Fernando Olivera
27%

Vladimir Cerrón
26%

Carlos Espá
26%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
6%
Jorge Nieto 85%
Wolfgang Grozo 54%
Alfonso López Chau 54%
Roberto Chiabra 53%

Jorge Nieto
85%

Wolfgang Grozo
54%

Alfonso López Chau
54%

Roberto Chiabra
53%

José Williams
53%

Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
53%

Marisol Pérez Tello
53%

Mario Vizcarra
53%

César Acuña
53%

José Luna
53%

Enrique Valderrama
53%

Ricardo Belmont
53%

Mesías Guevara
53%

Carlos Álvarez
52%

Rafael López Aliaga
55%

Roberto Sánchez Palomino
36%

Yonhy Lescano
28%

Fiorella Molinelli
27%

Fernando Olivera
27%

Vladimir Cerrón
26%

Carlos Espá
26%

Keiko Fujimori
12%

George Forsyth
6%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Markt eröffnet: Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Peru Presidential Election First Round Winner market positions Rafael López Aliaga as the clear frontrunner at 55% implied probability, driven by his consistent leads in recent nationwide polls amid widespread dissatisfaction with President Dina Boluarte's administration and ongoing corruption scandals eroding support for establishment figures. Jorge Nieto follows at 42.5%, bolstered by his technocratic profile and appeal to moderate voters seeking stability ahead of the April 2026 vote. Lower probabilities for candidates like Roberto Sánchez Palomino (36%) and others around 26-27% reflect fragmented opposition fields, with right-wing populism gaining traction post-2021 turmoil. Recent poll shifts from Ipsos and Datum favor conservative outsiders, while no snap election calls alter the timeline, keeping focus on early momentum and potential consolidations.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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