Trader consensus heavily favors 70-75% voter turnout at 83.7% implied probability for Peru's April 12-13 presidential election first round, aligning with the 2021 precedent of 74.6% participation amid widespread disillusionment from a decade of instability and leadership crises. Logistical failures prevented over 50,000 Lima voters from receiving ballots initially, prompting a one-day extension and ONPE investigation, which likely depressed turnout below the 81% Ipsos exit poll estimate and historical averages above 80%. With 91% of actas processed per official data, final certification awaits amid fraud allegations and protests, keeping lower bands like <70% at minimal odds while 75-80% trails as a competitive secondary outcome.