The fragmented field of 13 confirmed candidates for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats has kept first-place probabilities clustered near even, with recent party conventions finalizing slates in early August 2026 and no dominant frontrunner emerging yet. Marlene Soccas holds the highest implied probability at 27.5 percent, followed closely by Marcos Dorval and several others in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting trader consensus on a wide-open contest ahead of October voting. Limited early polling, diverse party affiliations, and the absence of major endorsements or scandals have prevented any single contender from pulling ahead. Scheduled campaign launches, alliance negotiations, and state-specific economic signals could quickly shift momentum and widen spreads before the first round.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertSenatswahl Santa Catarina: 1. Platz
Senatswahl Santa Catarina: 1. Platz
Carol de Toni 16%
Lunelli 13%
Marlene Soccas 13%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter 13%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Carol de Toni
22%
Lunelli
13%
Marlene Soccas
13%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
13%
Carlos Bolsonaro
12%
Afrânio Boppré
11%
Carol
10%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
10%
Marcos Dorval
9%
Jeferson da Rocha
9%
Décio Lima
9%
Esperidião Amin
9%
Joaninha de Oliveira
10%
Carol de Toni 16%
Lunelli 13%
Marlene Soccas 13%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter 13%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Carol de Toni
$96 Vol.
22%
Lunelli
$76 Vol.
13%
Marlene Soccas
$56 Vol.
13%
Túlio de Amorim Pfuetzenreiter
$56 Vol.
13%
Carlos Bolsonaro
$95 Vol.
12%
Afrânio Boppré
$72 Vol.
11%
Carol
$56 Vol.
10%
Ana Lucia da Silveira Machado
$56 Vol.
10%
Marcos Dorval
$56 Vol.
9%
Jeferson da Rocha
$56 Vol.
9%
Décio Lima
$72 Vol.
9%
Esperidião Amin
$56 Vol.
9%
Joaninha de Oliveira
$102 Vol.
10%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented field of 13 confirmed candidates for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats has kept first-place probabilities clustered near even, with recent party conventions finalizing slates in early August 2026 and no dominant frontrunner emerging yet. Marlene Soccas holds the highest implied probability at 27.5 percent, followed closely by Marcos Dorval and several others in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting trader consensus on a wide-open contest ahead of October voting. Limited early polling, diverse party affiliations, and the absence of major endorsements or scandals have prevented any single contender from pulling ahead. Scheduled campaign launches, alliance negotiations, and state-specific economic signals could quickly shift momentum and widen spreads before the first round.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
Volumen
$905Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The fragmented field of 13 confirmed candidates for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats has kept first-place probabilities clustered near even, with recent party conventions finalizing slates in early August 2026 and no dominant frontrunner emerging yet. Marlene Soccas holds the highest implied probability at 27.5 percent, followed closely by Marcos Dorval and several others in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting trader consensus on a wide-open contest ahead of October voting. Limited early polling, diverse party affiliations, and the absence of major endorsements or scandals have prevented any single contender from pulling ahead. Scheduled campaign launches, alliance negotiations, and state-specific economic signals could quickly shift momentum and widen spreads before the first round.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Santa Catarina is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$905Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The fragmented field of 13 confirmed candidates for Santa Catarina’s two Senate seats has kept first-place probabilities clustered near even, with recent party conventions finalizing slates in early August 2026 and no dominant frontrunner emerging yet. Marlene Soccas holds the highest implied probability at 27.5 percent, followed closely by Marcos Dorval and several others in the low-to-mid teens, reflecting trader consensus on a wide-open contest ahead of October voting. Limited early polling, diverse party affiliations, and the absence of major endorsements or scandals have prevented any single contender from pulling ahead. Scheduled campaign launches, alliance negotiations, and state-specific economic signals could quickly shift momentum and widen spreads before the first round.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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