Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling from mid-August shows a tight three-way contest for first place in Ceará’s 2026 Senate race, with Luizianne Lins (Rede), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) separated by just a few points amid high undecided and blank votes. Cid Gomes’ decision to seek re-election—following a direct appeal from President Lula to bolster the PT-aligned slate with Governor Elmano de Freitas—has consolidated left-leaning support, while Capitão Wagner benefits from opposition alignment with Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid. Luizianne’s inclusion on the same ticket adds another competitive option for progressive voters. This polarization, combined with Ceará’s history of close Senate contests and limited name recognition for lower-polling figures like Alcides Fernandes, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Upcoming debates or further poll releases before the October 4 vote could shift momentum among the frontrunners.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCid Gomes 45%
Capitão Wagner 42%
Luizianne 42%
Guilherme Theophilo 42%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Cid Gomes
45%
Capitão Wagner
42%
Luizianne
42%
Guilherme Theophilo
42%
Reginaldo
41%
Alcides Fernandes
41%
Catarina Matos
39%
Lino Alves
39%
Cid Gomes 45%
Capitão Wagner 42%
Luizianne 42%
Guilherme Theophilo 42%
NEU
NEU
4. Okt. 2026
Cid Gomes
$0 Vol.
45%
Capitão Wagner
$0 Vol.
42%
Luizianne
$0 Vol.
42%
Guilherme Theophilo
$0 Vol.
42%
Reginaldo
$0 Vol.
41%
Alcides Fernandes
$0 Vol.
41%
Catarina Matos
$0 Vol.
39%
Lino Alves
$0 Vol.
39%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling from mid-August shows a tight three-way contest for first place in Ceará’s 2026 Senate race, with Luizianne Lins (Rede), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) separated by just a few points amid high undecided and blank votes. Cid Gomes’ decision to seek re-election—following a direct appeal from President Lula to bolster the PT-aligned slate with Governor Elmano de Freitas—has consolidated left-leaning support, while Capitão Wagner benefits from opposition alignment with Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid. Luizianne’s inclusion on the same ticket adds another competitive option for progressive voters. This polarization, combined with Ceará’s history of close Senate contests and limited name recognition for lower-polling figures like Alcides Fernandes, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Upcoming debates or further poll releases before the October 4 vote could shift momentum among the frontrunners.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Markt eröffnet: Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling from mid-August shows a tight three-way contest for first place in Ceará’s 2026 Senate race, with Luizianne Lins (Rede), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) separated by just a few points amid high undecided and blank votes. Cid Gomes’ decision to seek re-election—following a direct appeal from President Lula to bolster the PT-aligned slate with Governor Elmano de Freitas—has consolidated left-leaning support, while Capitão Wagner benefits from opposition alignment with Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid. Luizianne’s inclusion on the same ticket adds another competitive option for progressive voters. This polarization, combined with Ceará’s history of close Senate contests and limited name recognition for lower-polling figures like Alcides Fernandes, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Upcoming debates or further poll releases before the October 4 vote could shift momentum among the frontrunners.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Ceará is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$0Enddatum
4. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 17, 2026, 5:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent AtlasIntel and Quaest polling from mid-August shows a tight three-way contest for first place in Ceará’s 2026 Senate race, with Luizianne Lins (Rede), incumbent Cid Gomes (PSB), and Capitão Wagner (União Brasil) separated by just a few points amid high undecided and blank votes. Cid Gomes’ decision to seek re-election—following a direct appeal from President Lula to bolster the PT-aligned slate with Governor Elmano de Freitas—has consolidated left-leaning support, while Capitão Wagner benefits from opposition alignment with Ciro Gomes’ gubernatorial bid. Luizianne’s inclusion on the same ticket adds another competitive option for progressive voters. This polarization, combined with Ceará’s history of close Senate contests and limited name recognition for lower-polling figures like Alcides Fernandes, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even money. Upcoming debates or further poll releases before the October 4 vote could shift momentum among the frontrunners.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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