Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. debt default by 2027, reflecting Congress's historical pattern of raising or suspending the debt limit—78 times since 1960—to avert crisis, with no partisan brinkmanship or shutdown threats emerging in early 2026. President Trump's April 3 release of the FY2027 budget proposes 10% cuts to non-defense discretionary spending alongside historic defense increases, adding nearly $7 trillion to the $39 trillion national debt over the decade but signaling routine fiscal planning rather than default risk. Fed Chair Powell and GAO recently warned of an unsustainable debt trajectory projected to exceed 120% of GDP, yet Treasury's extraordinary measures post-January 2025 reinstatement provide runway, with potential X-date in late 2026 prompting preemptive legislative action before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertUS-Schuldenausfälle bis 2027?
US-Schuldenausfälle bis 2027?
Ja
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$14,699 Vol.
$14,699 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. debt default by 2027, reflecting Congress's historical pattern of raising or suspending the debt limit—78 times since 1960—to avert crisis, with no partisan brinkmanship or shutdown threats emerging in early 2026. President Trump's April 3 release of the FY2027 budget proposes 10% cuts to non-defense discretionary spending alongside historic defense increases, adding nearly $7 trillion to the $39 trillion national debt over the decade but signaling routine fiscal planning rather than default risk. Fed Chair Powell and GAO recently warned of an unsustainable debt trajectory projected to exceed 120% of GDP, yet Treasury's extraordinary measures post-January 2025 reinstatement provide runway, with potential X-date in late 2026 prompting preemptive legislative action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volumen
$14,699Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. debt default by 2027, reflecting Congress's historical pattern of raising or suspending the debt limit—78 times since 1960—to avert crisis, with no partisan brinkmanship or shutdown threats emerging in early 2026. President Trump's April 3 release of the FY2027 budget proposes 10% cuts to non-defense discretionary spending alongside historic defense increases, adding nearly $7 trillion to the $39 trillion national debt over the decade but signaling routine fiscal planning rather than default risk. Fed Chair Powell and GAO recently warned of an unsustainable debt trajectory projected to exceed 120% of GDP, yet Treasury's extraordinary measures post-January 2025 reinstatement provide runway, with potential X-date in late 2026 prompting preemptive legislative action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$14,699Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no U.S. debt default by 2027, reflecting Congress's historical pattern of raising or suspending the debt limit—78 times since 1960—to avert crisis, with no partisan brinkmanship or shutdown threats emerging in early 2026. President Trump's April 3 release of the FY2027 budget proposes 10% cuts to non-defense discretionary spending alongside historic defense increases, adding nearly $7 trillion to the $39 trillion national debt over the decade but signaling routine fiscal planning rather than default risk. Fed Chair Powell and GAO recently warned of an unsustainable debt trajectory projected to exceed 120% of GDP, yet Treasury's extraordinary measures post-January 2025 reinstatement provide runway, with potential X-date in late 2026 prompting preemptive legislative action before year-end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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