Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027, reflecting the long record of Congress raising or suspending the debt ceiling on nearly 80 occasions since 1960, most recently in July 2025 with a $5 trillion increase to $41.1 trillion. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action ahead of exhaustion of Treasury extraordinary measures, projected for late 2026 through mid-2027. Both parties have consistently recognized the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would follow any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include extended congressional deadlock during the next ceiling debate or an unanticipated fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution before December 31, 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Schuldenausfälle bis 2027?
US-Schuldenausfälle bis 2027?
Ja
2% Chance
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
Ja
2% Chance
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
30. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027, reflecting the long record of Congress raising or suspending the debt ceiling on nearly 80 occasions since 1960, most recently in July 2025 with a $5 trillion increase to $41.1 trillion. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action ahead of exhaustion of Treasury extraordinary measures, projected for late 2026 through mid-2027. Both parties have consistently recognized the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would follow any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include extended congressional deadlock during the next ceiling debate or an unanticipated fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution before December 31, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volumen
$17,090Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027, reflecting the long record of Congress raising or suspending the debt ceiling on nearly 80 occasions since 1960, most recently in July 2025 with a $5 trillion increase to $41.1 trillion. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action ahead of exhaustion of Treasury extraordinary measures, projected for late 2026 through mid-2027. Both parties have consistently recognized the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would follow any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include extended congressional deadlock during the next ceiling debate or an unanticipated fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution before December 31, 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volumen
$17,090Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027, reflecting the long record of Congress raising or suspending the debt ceiling on nearly 80 occasions since 1960, most recently in July 2025 with a $5 trillion increase to $41.1 trillion. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action ahead of exhaustion of Treasury extraordinary measures, projected for late 2026 through mid-2027. Both parties have consistently recognized the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would follow any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include extended congressional deadlock during the next ceiling debate or an unanticipated fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution before December 31, 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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