Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027, reflecting the long record of Congress raising or suspending the debt ceiling on nearly 80 occasions since 1960, most recently in July 2025 with a $5 trillion increase to $41.1 trillion. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action ahead of exhaustion of Treasury extraordinary measures, projected for late 2026 through mid-2027. Both parties have consistently recognized the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would follow any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include extended congressional deadlock during the next ceiling debate or an unanticipated fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution before December 31, 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertUS-Schuldenausfälle bis 2027?
Ja
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
Ja
$17,090 Vol.
$17,090 Vol.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Abwickler
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.2% implied probability against a U.S. default by 2027, reflecting the long record of Congress raising or suspending the debt ceiling on nearly 80 occasions since 1960, most recently in July 2025 with a $5 trillion increase to $41.1 trillion. Credit rating agencies maintain stable outlooks on U.S. sovereign debt, citing expectations of timely bipartisan action ahead of exhaustion of Treasury extraordinary measures, projected for late 2026 through mid-2027. Both parties have consistently recognized the severe market disruption, higher borrowing costs, and economic fallout that would follow any missed Treasury payment. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes include extended congressional deadlock during the next ceiling debate or an unanticipated fiscal shock that compresses the timeline for resolution before December 31, 2027.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert



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