**Traders assign a 90% probability that Congress will not authorize a military draft in 2026 because no legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act has advanced to activate conscription.** The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment needs without a national emergency declaration, and the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused solely on implementing automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting in December rather than restoring induction authority. Bipartisan repeal efforts, including a May 2026 bill to abolish the Selective Service System, underscore institutional resistance to conscription. Recent geopolitical tensions have prompted statements keeping options open but have not produced draft-related votes or executive actions. Without major escalation triggering congressional action before year-end, the current trajectory supports the market's assessment that authorization remains unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$340,575 Vol.
$340,575 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$340,575 Vol.
$340,575 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 90% probability that Congress will not authorize a military draft in 2026 because no legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act has advanced to activate conscription.** The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment needs without a national emergency declaration, and the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused solely on implementing automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting in December rather than restoring induction authority. Bipartisan repeal efforts, including a May 2026 bill to abolish the Selective Service System, underscore institutional resistance to conscription. Recent geopolitical tensions have prompted statements keeping options open but have not produced draft-related votes or executive actions. Without major escalation triggering congressional action before year-end, the current trajectory supports the market's assessment that authorization remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volumen
$340,575Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Traders assign a 90% probability that Congress will not authorize a military draft in 2026 because no legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act has advanced to activate conscription.** The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment needs without a national emergency declaration, and the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused solely on implementing automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting in December rather than restoring induction authority. Bipartisan repeal efforts, including a May 2026 bill to abolish the Selective Service System, underscore institutional resistance to conscription. Recent geopolitical tensions have prompted statements keeping options open but have not produced draft-related votes or executive actions. Without major escalation triggering congressional action before year-end, the current trajectory supports the market's assessment that authorization remains unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$340,608Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign a 90% probability that Congress will not authorize a military draft in 2026 because no legislation amending the Military Selective Service Act has advanced to activate conscription.** The all-volunteer force continues to meet recruitment needs without a national emergency declaration, and the 2026 National Defense Authorization Act focused solely on implementing automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 starting in December rather than restoring induction authority. Bipartisan repeal efforts, including a May 2026 bill to abolish the Selective Service System, underscore institutional resistance to conscription. Recent geopolitical tensions have prompted statements keeping options open but have not produced draft-related votes or executive actions. Without major escalation triggering congressional action before year-end, the current trajectory supports the market's assessment that authorization remains unlikely.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen