Traders assign an 89% probability to no US military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act for induction, which requires explicit legislation and presidential approval during a national emergency exceeding all-volunteer force capacity. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandated automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 to streamline the existing database, without triggering conscription. Ongoing operations tied to Iran tensions have remained air-focused, with administration statements confirming no current plans for ground troops or draft activation. Legislative efforts, including a May 2026 Senate bill to abolish the Selective Service System, further reflect limited support for expanding conscription authority this year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$340,375 Vol.
$340,375 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$340,375 Vol.
$340,375 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 89% probability to no US military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act for induction, which requires explicit legislation and presidential approval during a national emergency exceeding all-volunteer force capacity. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandated automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 to streamline the existing database, without triggering conscription. Ongoing operations tied to Iran tensions have remained air-focused, with administration statements confirming no current plans for ground troops or draft activation. Legislative efforts, including a May 2026 Senate bill to abolish the Selective Service System, further reflect limited support for expanding conscription authority this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volumen
$340,375Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign an 89% probability to no US military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act for induction, which requires explicit legislation and presidential approval during a national emergency exceeding all-volunteer force capacity. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandated automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 to streamline the existing database, without triggering conscription. Ongoing operations tied to Iran tensions have remained air-focused, with administration statements confirming no current plans for ground troops or draft activation. Legislative efforts, including a May 2026 Senate bill to abolish the Selective Service System, further reflect limited support for expanding conscription authority this year.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$340,375Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an 89% probability to no US military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has taken no steps to amend the Military Selective Service Act for induction, which requires explicit legislation and presidential approval during a national emergency exceeding all-volunteer force capacity. The FY2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in December 2025, only mandated automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 to streamline the existing database, without triggering conscription. Ongoing operations tied to Iran tensions have remained air-focused, with administration statements confirming no current plans for ground troops or draft activation. Legislative efforts, including a May 2026 Senate bill to abolish the Selective Service System, further reflect limited support for expanding conscription authority this year.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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