Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 86.5% despite the open-seat contest created by incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement announcement. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index, drawn from recent presidential results, has historically delivered comfortable Republican margins, and early candidate filings show multiple GOP contenders—including state Sen. Matt Boehnke and leading fundraiser Amanda McKinney—positioning the party to consolidate support through Washington’s August top-two primary. Democratic candidate John Duresky faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat since the 1990s. With the general election still months away and no major polling shifts reported, the current pricing tracks established race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball that classify the seat as safe or solid Republican.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWA-04 Wahlsieger
WA-04 Wahlsieger
$29,950 Vol.
$29,950 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
87%
Demokratische Partei
13%
$29,950 Vol.
$29,950 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$15,124 Vol.
87%
Demokratische Partei
$14,826 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 86.5% despite the open-seat contest created by incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement announcement. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index, drawn from recent presidential results, has historically delivered comfortable Republican margins, and early candidate filings show multiple GOP contenders—including state Sen. Matt Boehnke and leading fundraiser Amanda McKinney—positioning the party to consolidate support through Washington’s August top-two primary. Democratic candidate John Duresky faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat since the 1990s. With the general election still months away and no major polling shifts reported, the current pricing tracks established race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball that classify the seat as safe or solid Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$29,950Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 86.5% despite the open-seat contest created by incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement announcement. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index, drawn from recent presidential results, has historically delivered comfortable Republican margins, and early candidate filings show multiple GOP contenders—including state Sen. Matt Boehnke and leading fundraiser Amanda McKinney—positioning the party to consolidate support through Washington’s August top-two primary. Democratic candidate John Duresky faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat since the 1990s. With the general election still months away and no major polling shifts reported, the current pricing tracks established race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball that classify the seat as safe or solid Republican.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$29,950Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Washington’s 4th congressional district remains a solidly Republican seat, reflected in trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at 86.5% despite the open-seat contest created by incumbent Dan Newhouse’s retirement announcement. The district’s R+10 partisan voting index, drawn from recent presidential results, has historically delivered comfortable Republican margins, and early candidate filings show multiple GOP contenders—including state Sen. Matt Boehnke and leading fundraiser Amanda McKinney—positioning the party to consolidate support through Washington’s August top-two primary. Democratic candidate John Duresky faces structural headwinds in a district that has not elected a Democrat since the 1990s. With the general election still months away and no major polling shifts reported, the current pricing tracks established race ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball that classify the seat as safe or solid Republican.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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