Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Democratic stronghold centered on Milwaukee, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 that has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and Senate contests. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contests, while Republican candidates have not mounted competitive general-election challenges in the current cycle. Election forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors. The primary risks to the outcome would involve an unforeseen late-cycle scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan shift capable of overcoming the district’s entrenched voting patterns before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWI-04 Wahlsieger
WI-04 Wahlsieger
$28,045 Vol.
$28,045 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
5%
$28,045 Vol.
$28,045 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$8,837 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$19,208 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Democratic stronghold centered on Milwaukee, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 that has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and Senate contests. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contests, while Republican candidates have not mounted competitive general-election challenges in the current cycle. Election forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors. The primary risks to the outcome would involve an unforeseen late-cycle scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan shift capable of overcoming the district’s entrenched voting patterns before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$28,045Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Democratic stronghold centered on Milwaukee, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 that has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and Senate contests. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contests, while Republican candidates have not mounted competitive general-election challenges in the current cycle. Election forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors. The primary risks to the outcome would involve an unforeseen late-cycle scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan shift capable of overcoming the district’s entrenched voting patterns before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$28,045Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a longstanding Democratic stronghold centered on Milwaukee, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 that has produced consistent double-digit Democratic margins in recent presidential and Senate contests. Incumbent Representative Gwen Moore, first elected in 2004, faces limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 contests, while Republican candidates have not mounted competitive general-election challenges in the current cycle. Election forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. Trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% Democratic probability aligns with these structural factors. The primary risks to the outcome would involve an unforeseen late-cycle scandal, health event, or dramatic national partisan shift capable of overcoming the district’s entrenched voting patterns before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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