Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore, first elected in 2005, captured 74.8 percent of the vote in 2024 against limited Republican opposition. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 2026 primaries and November general election. Trader consensus placing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent reflects these structural factors, consistent voter registration patterns, and the absence of competitive candidate filings or polling shifts. A realistic challenge would require Moore’s withdrawal for health reasons or an unforeseen national swing that alters urban district performance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWI-04 Wahlsieger
WI-04 Wahlsieger
$23,465 Vol.
$23,465 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
94%
Republikanische Partei
3%
$23,465 Vol.
$23,465 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Demokratische Partei
$6,364 Vol.
94%
Republikanische Partei
$17,101 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore, first elected in 2005, captured 74.8 percent of the vote in 2024 against limited Republican opposition. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 2026 primaries and November general election. Trader consensus placing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent reflects these structural factors, consistent voter registration patterns, and the absence of competitive candidate filings or polling shifts. A realistic challenge would require Moore’s withdrawal for health reasons or an unforeseen national swing that alters urban district performance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$23,465Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore, first elected in 2005, captured 74.8 percent of the vote in 2024 against limited Republican opposition. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 2026 primaries and November general election. Trader consensus placing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent reflects these structural factors, consistent voter registration patterns, and the absence of competitive candidate filings or polling shifts. A realistic challenge would require Moore’s withdrawal for health reasons or an unforeseen national swing that alters urban district performance.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$23,465Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district, anchored in Milwaukee County, carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and has delivered Democratic margins exceeding 50 points in recent cycles. Incumbent Gwen Moore, first elected in 2005, captured 74.8 percent of the vote in 2024 against limited Republican opposition. Nonpartisan forecasters classify the seat as Solid or Safe Democratic ahead of the August 2026 primaries and November general election. Trader consensus placing the Democratic nominee above 93 percent reflects these structural factors, consistent voter registration patterns, and the absence of competitive candidate filings or polling shifts. A realistic challenge would require Moore’s withdrawal for health reasons or an unforeseen national swing that alters urban district performance.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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