**Omar’s status as a naturalized U.S. citizen since 2000 creates the primary barrier, as federal law requires a successful denaturalization proceeding in court—proving willful fraud in the original citizenship application—before any removal is possible.** No such DOJ civil action or criminal case has produced a revocation, despite longstanding allegations of immigration fraud and recent political calls for investigation. As of late August 2026, reports of ICE enforcement interest remain unconfirmed in public records, and denaturalization remains rare with a high evidentiary threshold. Traders assign 96.6% probability to “No” because these structural and procedural hurdles have not been overcome. Late developments such as a completed denaturalization ruling or new charges tied directly to the naturalization process could still shift the outcome before year-end.