**Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since sustaining injuries in the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.** Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on September 12 that Mojtaba is alive, exercising final authority, and operating from a secure location inside the country, attributing secrecy to security needs amid an information war. Regime statements emphasize his continued role in decisions, supported by attributed appointments and limited communications, while analysts note a more collective leadership structure involving the IRGC. An Israeli security source previously claimed he had left Iran, and unverified reports have speculated about possible medical treatment abroad or severe incapacity. Trader assessments of any departure timeline center on verified evidence of his location versus ongoing conflict risks, assassination threats, and the absence of independent confirmation beyond official channels. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could influence perceptions of his mobility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$117,836 Vol.
31. Okt. 2026
31. Oktober
3%
31. Dezember
5%
$117,836 Vol.
31. Oktober
$116 Vol.
3%
31. Dezember
$806 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since sustaining injuries in the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.** Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on September 12 that Mojtaba is alive, exercising final authority, and operating from a secure location inside the country, attributing secrecy to security needs amid an information war. Regime statements emphasize his continued role in decisions, supported by attributed appointments and limited communications, while analysts note a more collective leadership structure involving the IRGC. An Israeli security source previously claimed he had left Iran, and unverified reports have speculated about possible medical treatment abroad or severe incapacity. Trader assessments of any departure timeline center on verified evidence of his location versus ongoing conflict risks, assassination threats, and the absence of independent confirmation beyond official channels. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could influence perceptions of his mobility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$117,836Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since sustaining injuries in the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.** Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on September 12 that Mojtaba is alive, exercising final authority, and operating from a secure location inside the country, attributing secrecy to security needs amid an information war. Regime statements emphasize his continued role in decisions, supported by attributed appointments and limited communications, while analysts note a more collective leadership structure involving the IRGC. An Israeli security source previously claimed he had left Iran, and unverified reports have speculated about possible medical treatment abroad or severe incapacity. Trader assessments of any departure timeline center on verified evidence of his location versus ongoing conflict risks, assassination threats, and the absence of independent confirmation beyond official channels. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could influence perceptions of his mobility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$117,836Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...**Mojtaba Khamenei has remained out of public view since sustaining injuries in the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed his father, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.** Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated on September 12 that Mojtaba is alive, exercising final authority, and operating from a secure location inside the country, attributing secrecy to security needs amid an information war. Regime statements emphasize his continued role in decisions, supported by attributed appointments and limited communications, while analysts note a more collective leadership structure involving the IRGC. An Israeli security source previously claimed he had left Iran, and unverified reports have speculated about possible medical treatment abroad or severe incapacity. Trader assessments of any departure timeline center on verified evidence of his location versus ongoing conflict risks, assassination threats, and the absence of independent confirmation beyond official channels. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could influence perceptions of his mobility.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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