In the Alagoas Senate race for two seats, trader consensus reflects a fragmented field with Arthur Lira holding the highest implied probability for first place amid several viable contenders. Recent polling shows Lira advancing to around 41% support after steady gains since early 2026, yet figures like Renan Calheiros, Davi Davino Filho, Alfredo Gaspar, Marina JHC, and others remain competitive due to undecided voters, shifting alliances ahead of party conventions, and the state's multi-candidate dynamics. The absence of finalized coalitions and limited late-summer momentum keep probabilities closely bunched, with potential separation likely hinging on upcoming debates, endorsements, or primary results before October voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoAlexandre Fleming 34%
Arthur Lira 26%
Dr. Wanderley 25%
Marina JHC 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Alexandre Fleming
34%
Arthur Lira
26%
Dr. Wanderley
25%
Marina JHC
25%
Mariedson
23%
Davi Davino Filho
23%
Renan
22%
Alexandre Fleming 34%
Arthur Lira 26%
Dr. Wanderley 25%
Marina JHC 25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
Alexandre Fleming
$71 Vol.
34%
Arthur Lira
$0 Vol.
26%
Dr. Wanderley
$0 Vol.
25%
Marina JHC
$0 Vol.
25%
Mariedson
$0 Vol.
23%
Davi Davino Filho
$0 Vol.
23%
Renan
$0 Vol.
22%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Alagoas Senate race for two seats, trader consensus reflects a fragmented field with Arthur Lira holding the highest implied probability for first place amid several viable contenders. Recent polling shows Lira advancing to around 41% support after steady gains since early 2026, yet figures like Renan Calheiros, Davi Davino Filho, Alfredo Gaspar, Marina JHC, and others remain competitive due to undecided voters, shifting alliances ahead of party conventions, and the state's multi-candidate dynamics. The absence of finalized coalitions and limited late-summer momentum keep probabilities closely bunched, with potential separation likely hinging on upcoming debates, endorsements, or primary results before October voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ET
Volumen
$71Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Alagoas Senate race for two seats, trader consensus reflects a fragmented field with Arthur Lira holding the highest implied probability for first place amid several viable contenders. Recent polling shows Lira advancing to around 41% support after steady gains since early 2026, yet figures like Renan Calheiros, Davi Davino Filho, Alfredo Gaspar, Marina JHC, and others remain competitive due to undecided voters, shifting alliances ahead of party conventions, and the state's multi-candidate dynamics. The absence of finalized coalitions and limited late-summer momentum keep probabilities closely bunched, with potential separation likely hinging on upcoming debates, endorsements, or primary results before October voting.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Alagoas is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$71Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:51 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the Alagoas Senate race for two seats, trader consensus reflects a fragmented field with Arthur Lira holding the highest implied probability for first place amid several viable contenders. Recent polling shows Lira advancing to around 41% support after steady gains since early 2026, yet figures like Renan Calheiros, Davi Davino Filho, Alfredo Gaspar, Marina JHC, and others remain competitive due to undecided voters, shifting alliances ahead of party conventions, and the state's multi-candidate dynamics. The absence of finalized coalitions and limited late-summer momentum keep probabilities closely bunched, with potential separation likely hinging on upcoming debates, endorsements, or primary results before October voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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