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Geopolítica·Líbano

¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?

Market icon
Geopolítica·Líbano

¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?

Sí

11% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO

Sí

11% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Tehrani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Buenos Aires designating the IRGC a terrorist organization—marks the most recent such action, following a March wave by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. With no further verified diplomatic expulsions or escalatory incidents like missile strikes or intelligence revelations in the six days since, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" additional action by April 30, viewing the anti-Iran momentum as plateaued. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking military developments, sanctions, or alliance pressures, though current de-escalation signals bolster stability expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,604
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Argentina's expulsion of Iran's charge d'affaires Mohsen Tehrani as persona non grata on April 2—triggered by Buenos Aires designating the IRGC a terrorist organization—marks the most recent such action, following a March wave by Gulf states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Lebanon amid heightened regional tensions. With no further verified diplomatic expulsions or escalatory incidents like missile strikes or intelligence revelations in the six days since, traders price an 89.5% implied probability on "No" additional action by April 30, viewing the anti-Iran momentum as plateaued. Potential shifts could arise from late-breaking military developments, sanctions, or alliance pressures, though current de-escalation signals bolster stability expectations.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata.

An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,604
Fecha de finalización
30 abr 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 6, 2026, 5:42 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels an Iranian diplomat stationed in that country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by the relevant country ordering the Iranian diplomat to leave, including a declaration of persona non grata. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the relevant diplomat actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" con 11%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 11¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 6, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" es "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" con 11%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 11% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Otro diplomático iraní expulsado antes del 30 de abril?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.