Trader consensus on a 98.3% "No" probability for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest reflects the total absence of any credible criminal allegations, DOJ investigations, or FBI actions against him, with no public charges or indictments announced in recent months. Tensions stem from civil disputes with the Pentagon over AI safety guardrails on Claude models, including a March 2026 supply-chain risk designation and Anthropic's lawsuit challenging it, alongside a White House meeting on April 17 amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny—but these remain policy matters, not criminal probes. A federal judge rejected enforcement of the Pentagon ban in late March, further defusing escalation. Realistic shifts would require sudden evidence of serious violations like fraud or national security breaches, though historical precedents for executive arrests in tech-policy spats are rare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$157,050 Vol.
$157,050 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$157,050 Vol.
$157,050 Vol.
30 jun 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 98.3% "No" probability for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest reflects the total absence of any credible criminal allegations, DOJ investigations, or FBI actions against him, with no public charges or indictments announced in recent months. Tensions stem from civil disputes with the Pentagon over AI safety guardrails on Claude models, including a March 2026 supply-chain risk designation and Anthropic's lawsuit challenging it, alongside a White House meeting on April 17 amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny—but these remain policy matters, not criminal probes. A federal judge rejected enforcement of the Pentagon ban in late March, further defusing escalation. Realistic shifts would require sudden evidence of serious violations like fraud or national security breaches, though historical precedents for executive arrests in tech-policy spats are rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Volumen
$157,050Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on a 98.3% "No" probability for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest reflects the total absence of any credible criminal allegations, DOJ investigations, or FBI actions against him, with no public charges or indictments announced in recent months. Tensions stem from civil disputes with the Pentagon over AI safety guardrails on Claude models, including a March 2026 supply-chain risk designation and Anthropic's lawsuit challenging it, alongside a White House meeting on April 17 amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny—but these remain policy matters, not criminal probes. A federal judge rejected enforcement of the Pentagon ban in late March, further defusing escalation. Realistic shifts would require sudden evidence of serious violations like fraud or national security breaches, though historical precedents for executive arrests in tech-policy spats are rare.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$157,050Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on a 98.3% "No" probability for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei facing arrest reflects the total absence of any credible criminal allegations, DOJ investigations, or FBI actions against him, with no public charges or indictments announced in recent months. Tensions stem from civil disputes with the Pentagon over AI safety guardrails on Claude models, including a March 2026 supply-chain risk designation and Anthropic's lawsuit challenging it, alongside a White House meeting on April 17 amid ongoing regulatory scrutiny—but these remain policy matters, not criminal probes. A federal judge rejected enforcement of the Pentagon ban in late March, further defusing escalation. Realistic shifts would require sudden evidence of serious violations like fraud or national security breaches, though historical precedents for executive arrests in tech-policy spats are rare.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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