Brazil's Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority of 54 out of 81 votes to open impeachment proceedings against STF ministers, a threshold that current and projected opposition strength has not approached. Recent internal STF assessments and Senate dynamics show pro-impeachment factions likely securing only around 40 seats after 2026 elections, well short of the mark needed before 2027. Multiple pending petitions, including those targeting specific justices, have stalled amid procedural reviews and leadership negotiations, with no successful removals in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 96.9% for no removal reflects these structural barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of shifting Senate majorities. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or rapid coalition realignments before year-end remain the primary variables that could still alter the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$82,649 Vol.
$82,649 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$82,649 Vol.
$82,649 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority of 54 out of 81 votes to open impeachment proceedings against STF ministers, a threshold that current and projected opposition strength has not approached. Recent internal STF assessments and Senate dynamics show pro-impeachment factions likely securing only around 40 seats after 2026 elections, well short of the mark needed before 2027. Multiple pending petitions, including those targeting specific justices, have stalled amid procedural reviews and leadership negotiations, with no successful removals in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 96.9% for no removal reflects these structural barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of shifting Senate majorities. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or rapid coalition realignments before year-end remain the primary variables that could still alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
Volumen
$82,649Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority of 54 out of 81 votes to open impeachment proceedings against STF ministers, a threshold that current and projected opposition strength has not approached. Recent internal STF assessments and Senate dynamics show pro-impeachment factions likely securing only around 40 seats after 2026 elections, well short of the mark needed before 2027. Multiple pending petitions, including those targeting specific justices, have stalled amid procedural reviews and leadership negotiations, with no successful removals in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 96.9% for no removal reflects these structural barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of shifting Senate majorities. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or rapid coalition realignments before year-end remain the primary variables that could still alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.
Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$82,649Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Brazil's Senate requires a two-thirds supermajority of 54 out of 81 votes to open impeachment proceedings against STF ministers, a threshold that current and projected opposition strength has not approached. Recent internal STF assessments and Senate dynamics show pro-impeachment factions likely securing only around 40 seats after 2026 elections, well short of the mark needed before 2027. Multiple pending petitions, including those targeting specific justices, have stalled amid procedural reviews and leadership negotiations, with no successful removals in recent cycles. Trader consensus at 96.9% for no removal reflects these structural barriers and the absence of near-term catalysts capable of shifting Senate majorities. Late developments such as unexpected scandals or rapid coalition realignments before year-end remain the primary variables that could still alter the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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