Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, drives the dominant market positioning for claude-opus-5-max. Anthropic positioned the model as delivering frontier-level reasoning and agentic performance close to the more expensive Claude Fable 5 at half the cost, with 1M context, thinking enabled by default across effort tiers, and strong results on long-horizon coding and multi-step tasks. Traders view the max effort setting as the highest-capability configuration likely to lead benchmarks or consensus evaluations by mid-August, while lower-probability outcomes such as claude-opus-5-high, older Opus variants, and Fable 5 reflect cost or access trade-offs. No competing model releases have emerged in the past week to shift this consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizadoclaude-opus-5-max 84%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8%
claude-opus-5-high 6%
Otro 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 ago 2026
claude-opus-5-max
84%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
8%
claude-opus-5-high
6%
Otro
4%
claude-fable-5
4%
claude-opus-4-6
3%
claude-opus-5-max 84%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 8%
claude-opus-5-high 6%
Otro 4%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 ago 2026
claude-opus-5-max
$124 Vol.
84%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$117 Vol.
8%
claude-opus-5-high
$40 Vol.
6%
Otro
$0 Vol.
4%
claude-fable-5
$48 Vol.
4%
claude-opus-4-6
$111 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, drives the dominant market positioning for claude-opus-5-max. Anthropic positioned the model as delivering frontier-level reasoning and agentic performance close to the more expensive Claude Fable 5 at half the cost, with 1M context, thinking enabled by default across effort tiers, and strong results on long-horizon coding and multi-step tasks. Traders view the max effort setting as the highest-capability configuration likely to lead benchmarks or consensus evaluations by mid-August, while lower-probability outcomes such as claude-opus-5-high, older Opus variants, and Fable 5 reflect cost or access trade-offs. No competing model releases have emerged in the past week to shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volumen
$440Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, drives the dominant market positioning for claude-opus-5-max. Anthropic positioned the model as delivering frontier-level reasoning and agentic performance close to the more expensive Claude Fable 5 at half the cost, with 1M context, thinking enabled by default across effort tiers, and strong results on long-horizon coding and multi-step tasks. Traders view the max effort setting as the highest-capability configuration likely to lead benchmarks or consensus evaluations by mid-August, while lower-probability outcomes such as claude-opus-5-high, older Opus variants, and Fable 5 reflect cost or access trade-offs. No competing model releases have emerged in the past week to shift this consensus.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$440Fecha de finalización
17 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Opus 5, released July 24, 2026, drives the dominant market positioning for claude-opus-5-max. Anthropic positioned the model as delivering frontier-level reasoning and agentic performance close to the more expensive Claude Fable 5 at half the cost, with 1M context, thinking enabled by default across effort tiers, and strong results on long-horizon coding and multi-step tasks. Traders view the max effort setting as the highest-capability configuration likely to lead benchmarks or consensus evaluations by mid-August, while lower-probability outcomes such as claude-opus-5-high, older Opus variants, and Fable 5 reflect cost or access trade-offs. No competing model releases have emerged in the past week to shift this consensus.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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