Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability for "No" on Rep. Eric Swalwell facing criminal charges by May 31, driven by the absence of formal indictments despite escalating scrutiny. The House Ethics Committee launched an investigation on April 13 into sexual misconduct allegations, including sexual assault claims from multiple accusers, prompting Swalwell to suspend his California gubernatorial campaign and face calls for congressional resignation; however, this remains an internal congressional probe, not a criminal matter. Manhattan DA's office is reviewing one assault allegation but has filed no charges. Earlier March referrals to DOJ over past ties to suspected Chinese spy Christine Fang and mortgage fraud claims have not advanced to indictment amid lengthy investigative timelines, reinforcing trader skepticism of swift action.