Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Ankara's forecast maximum temperature for April 18, with implied probabilities clustered around 14°C (29.5%) to 16°C (13.5%), driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) latest projection of a 16°C high amid a cooling shift from today's expected 21°C peak under departing high-pressure ridging. This positioning stems from springtime continental climate variability, where upper-level troughing may introduce cloudiness and northerly winds capping afternoon peaks, as shown in ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads of 13–16°C. Historical mid-April averages hover near 16°C, but recent volatility—from 9–15°C early month to warmer rebounds—heightens divergence. Watch MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations for resolution, as solar insolation and boundary layer mixing remain key differentiators.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on April 18?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 18?
14°C 30%
15°C 22%
13°C 17%
16°C 15%
NUEVO
$13,713 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,713 Vol.
18 abr 2026
12°C or below
10%
13°C
17%
14°C
30%
15°C
22%
16°C
15%
17°C
6%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
14°C 30%
15°C 22%
13°C 17%
16°C 15%
NUEVO
$13,713 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,713 Vol.
18 abr 2026
12°C or below
$1,868 Vol.
10%
13°C
$1,747 Vol.
17%
14°C
$1,009 Vol.
30%
15°C
$581 Vol.
22%
16°C
$1,686 Vol.
15%
17°C
$1,449 Vol.
6%
18°C
$2,194 Vol.
2%
19°C
$866 Vol.
1%
20°C
$521 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$537 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$1,288 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Ankara's forecast maximum temperature for April 18, with implied probabilities clustered around 14°C (29.5%) to 16°C (13.5%), driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) latest projection of a 16°C high amid a cooling shift from today's expected 21°C peak under departing high-pressure ridging. This positioning stems from springtime continental climate variability, where upper-level troughing may introduce cloudiness and northerly winds capping afternoon peaks, as shown in ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads of 13–16°C. Historical mid-April averages hover near 16°C, but recent volatility—from 9–15°C early month to warmer rebounds—heightens divergence. Watch MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations for resolution, as solar insolation and boundary layer mixing remain key differentiators.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volumen
$13,713Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Ankara's forecast maximum temperature for April 18, with implied probabilities clustered around 14°C (29.5%) to 16°C (13.5%), driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) latest projection of a 16°C high amid a cooling shift from today's expected 21°C peak under departing high-pressure ridging. This positioning stems from springtime continental climate variability, where upper-level troughing may introduce cloudiness and northerly winds capping afternoon peaks, as shown in ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads of 13–16°C. Historical mid-April averages hover near 16°C, but recent volatility—from 9–15°C early month to warmer rebounds—heightens divergence. Watch MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations for resolution, as solar insolation and boundary layer mixing remain key differentiators.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$13,713Fecha de finalización
18 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in Ankara's forecast maximum temperature for April 18, with implied probabilities clustered around 14°C (29.5%) to 16°C (13.5%), driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) latest projection of a 16°C high amid a cooling shift from today's expected 21°C peak under departing high-pressure ridging. This positioning stems from springtime continental climate variability, where upper-level troughing may introduce cloudiness and northerly winds capping afternoon peaks, as shown in ECMWF and GFS ensemble spreads of 13–16°C. Historical mid-April averages hover near 16°C, but recent volatility—from 9–15°C early month to warmer rebounds—heightens divergence. Watch MGM hourly updates and Esenboğa Airport observations for resolution, as solar insolation and boundary layer mixing remain key differentiators.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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