Persistent high pressure and a heat dome over central Texas are driving forecast highs in Austin toward 100–103°F on August 3, with National Weather Service and private models showing mostly sunny skies, light winds, and minimal moisture to limit afternoon convection. This setup aligns with typical late-summer climatology, where daily maxima average near 98°F but can exceed 100°F under strong subsidence. Recent model runs have stabilized around the low 100s after earlier variability, supporting trader consensus on the 100–101°F bin as the mode while leaving room for slight upward or downward shifts if steering currents or boundary-layer mixing change. Updated NWS guidance and morning soundings will provide the next key data points before market resolution.