Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty for a 24°C high in Shanghai on May 4, driven by midday observational data from stations like Xujiahui Observatory peaking at 24°C under persistent overcast skies that limit solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the last 24 hours, converge on this maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station via Wunderground records—aligning with early May climatology where average highs hover around 23–25°C. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon clearing allowing a 1°C spike before sunset, though cloud persistence and northerly flows make this unlikely; final daily data expected post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 4?
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$117,195 Vol.
$117,195 Vol.
4 may 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$117,195 Vol.
$117,195 Vol.
4 may 2026
18°C or below
$637 Vol.
No
19°C
$612 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,479 Vol.
No
21°C
$10,838 Vol.
No
22°C
$14,126 Vol.
No
23°C
$17,534 Vol.
No
24°C
$16,937 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$18,143 Vol.
No
26°C
$16,013 Vol.
No
27°C
$11,304 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$9,572 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty for a 24°C high in Shanghai on May 4, driven by midday observational data from stations like Xujiahui Observatory peaking at 24°C under persistent overcast skies that limit solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the last 24 hours, converge on this maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station via Wunderground records—aligning with early May climatology where average highs hover around 23–25°C. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon clearing allowing a 1°C spike before sunset, though cloud persistence and northerly flows make this unlikely; final daily data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volumen
$117,195Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty for a 24°C high in Shanghai on May 4, driven by midday observational data from stations like Xujiahui Observatory peaking at 24°C under persistent overcast skies that limit solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the last 24 hours, converge on this maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station via Wunderground records—aligning with early May climatology where average highs hover around 23–25°C. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon clearing allowing a 1°C spike before sunset, though cloud persistence and northerly flows make this unlikely; final daily data expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$117,195Fecha de finalización
4 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 2, 2026, 12:08 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty for a 24°C high in Shanghai on May 4, driven by midday observational data from stations like Xujiahui Observatory peaking at 24°C under persistent overcast skies that limit solar insolation and convective heating. China Meteorological Administration (CMA) short-range forecasts and global model ensembles, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated in the last 24 hours, converge on this maximum at Shanghai Pudong International Airport—the market's resolution station via Wunderground records—aligning with early May climatology where average highs hover around 23–25°C. Realistic challenges include brief afternoon clearing allowing a 1°C spike before sunset, though cloud persistence and northerly flows make this unlikely; final daily data expected post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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