Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 7 at 30°C, driven by intraday observational data from the resolving station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming a peak of 30°C this afternoon amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds under 12 km/h, and the urban heat island effect boosting readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. This aligns with international forecasts from AccuWeather (30.5°C) and the UK Met Office (30°C), overriding the China Meteorological Administration's more conservative 29°C call under expected overcast conditions. With sunset approaching and diurnal cooling underway, realistic challenges like unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling further solar insolation are improbable, as historical May patterns and current trajectories cap peaks near this level; final daily maximum data expected by evening local time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shanghai on May 7?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 7?
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$204,750 Vol.
$204,750 Vol.
7 may 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$204,750 Vol.
$204,750 Vol.
7 may 2026
23°C or below
$12,803 Vol.
No
24°C
$8,123 Vol.
No
25°C
$12,110 Vol.
No
26°C
$20,219 Vol.
No
27°C
$18,466 Vol.
No
28°C
$16,279 Vol.
No
29°C
$36,603 Vol.
No
30°C
$32,603 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$24,688 Vol.
No
32°C
$14,733 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$8,122 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 7 at 30°C, driven by intraday observational data from the resolving station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming a peak of 30°C this afternoon amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds under 12 km/h, and the urban heat island effect boosting readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. This aligns with international forecasts from AccuWeather (30.5°C) and the UK Met Office (30°C), overriding the China Meteorological Administration's more conservative 29°C call under expected overcast conditions. With sunset approaching and diurnal cooling underway, realistic challenges like unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling further solar insolation are improbable, as historical May patterns and current trajectories cap peaks near this level; final daily maximum data expected by evening local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$204,750Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 7 at 30°C, driven by intraday observational data from the resolving station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming a peak of 30°C this afternoon amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds under 12 km/h, and the urban heat island effect boosting readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. This aligns with international forecasts from AccuWeather (30.5°C) and the UK Met Office (30°C), overriding the China Meteorological Administration's more conservative 29°C call under expected overcast conditions. With sunset approaching and diurnal cooling underway, realistic challenges like unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling further solar insolation are improbable, as historical May patterns and current trajectories cap peaks near this level; final daily maximum data expected by evening local time.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$204,750Fecha de finalización
7 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 5, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Shanghai's highest temperature on May 7 at 30°C, driven by intraday observational data from the resolving station at Shanghai Pudong International Airport confirming a peak of 30°C this afternoon amid partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds under 12 km/h, and the urban heat island effect boosting readings 1–2°C above rural baselines. This aligns with international forecasts from AccuWeather (30.5°C) and the UK Met Office (30°C), overriding the China Meteorological Administration's more conservative 29°C call under expected overcast conditions. With sunset approaching and diurnal cooling underway, realistic challenges like unexpected afternoon cloud breaks enabling further solar insolation are improbable, as historical May patterns and current trajectories cap peaks near this level; final daily maximum data expected by evening local time.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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