Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 13-19 at 64% implied probability, driven by USGS data confirming no such events through April 16 amid subdued global seismic activity. The most recent qualifying quake was the M7.4 on April 1 off Indonesia, with only smaller tremors (e.g., M5.7 Nevada on April 14) since, reflecting a quiet phase below historical baselines of roughly 135 M6.0-6.9 events annually—or about 2.6 per week—per USGS statistics, where M6.5+ form a rarer subset following Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling. With three days remaining until resolution on April 19, real-time USGS monitoring of tectonic plates and fault systems remains critical, as unforeseen ruptures could shift odds rapidly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 13 al 19 de abril?
¿Cuántos terremotos de 6.5 o más del 13 al 19 de abril?
0 65%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,451 Vol.
$29,451 Vol.
19 abr 2026
0
65%
1
26%
2
8%
3
3%
4
1%
5
<1%
>5
<1%
0 65%
1 26%
2 8%
3 2.7%
$29,451 Vol.
$29,451 Vol.
19 abr 2026
0
$9,748 Vol.
65%
1
$6,860 Vol.
26%
2
$3,690 Vol.
8%
3
$1,414 Vol.
3%
4
$2,602 Vol.
1%
5
$2,139 Vol.
<1%
>5
$2,997 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 13-19 at 64% implied probability, driven by USGS data confirming no such events through April 16 amid subdued global seismic activity. The most recent qualifying quake was the M7.4 on April 1 off Indonesia, with only smaller tremors (e.g., M5.7 Nevada on April 14) since, reflecting a quiet phase below historical baselines of roughly 135 M6.0-6.9 events annually—or about 2.6 per week—per USGS statistics, where M6.5+ form a rarer subset following Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling. With three days remaining until resolution on April 19, real-time USGS monitoring of tectonic plates and fault systems remains critical, as unforeseen ruptures could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$29,451Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 13-19 at 64% implied probability, driven by USGS data confirming no such events through April 16 amid subdued global seismic activity. The most recent qualifying quake was the M7.4 on April 1 off Indonesia, with only smaller tremors (e.g., M5.7 Nevada on April 14) since, reflecting a quiet phase below historical baselines of roughly 135 M6.0-6.9 events annually—or about 2.6 per week—per USGS statistics, where M6.5+ form a rarer subset following Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling. With three days remaining until resolution on April 19, real-time USGS monitoring of tectonic plates and fault systems remains critical, as unforeseen ruptures could shift odds rapidly.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 13, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$29,451Fecha de finalización
19 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 10, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors zero earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or greater worldwide from April 13-19 at 64% implied probability, driven by USGS data confirming no such events through April 16 amid subdued global seismic activity. The most recent qualifying quake was the M7.4 on April 1 off Indonesia, with only smaller tremors (e.g., M5.7 Nevada on April 14) since, reflecting a quiet phase below historical baselines of roughly 135 M6.0-6.9 events annually—or about 2.6 per week—per USGS statistics, where M6.5+ form a rarer subset following Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude scaling. With three days remaining until resolution on April 19, real-time USGS monitoring of tectonic plates and fault systems remains critical, as unforeseen ruptures could shift odds rapidly.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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