**The near-certain "No" odds reflect the brief three-month window remaining until December 31, 2026, set against low short-term probabilities from USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models.** Long-term 30-year odds of a magnitude 6.7 or larger event in the Los Angeles region stand near 60 percent, implying annualized rates of roughly 2–4 percent for a qualifying quake within the defined 50-mile radius, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood, Puente Hills, and nearby San Andreas segments. Recent monitoring shows only background seismicity—scattered events below magnitude 3.2—with no accelerating foreshock sequences or strain-rate anomalies that would signal elevated near-term risk. While accumulated tectonic stress on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults has reached levels unseen in a millennium, this does not translate to imminent rupture on monthly timescales. A sudden, intense foreshock swarm on a local fault or an unexpected multi-segment jump could still shift the outlook before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Terremoto de magnitud 6.5+ en Los Ángeles antes de 2027?
$20,096 Vol.
$20,096 Vol.
$20,096 Vol.
$20,096 Vol.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070be91...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Resolver
0x65070be91...**The near-certain "No" odds reflect the brief three-month window remaining until December 31, 2026, set against low short-term probabilities from USGS Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast models.** Long-term 30-year odds of a magnitude 6.7 or larger event in the Los Angeles region stand near 60 percent, implying annualized rates of roughly 2–4 percent for a qualifying quake within the defined 50-mile radius, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades to centuries on local faults such as the Newport-Inglewood, Puente Hills, and nearby San Andreas segments. Recent monitoring shows only background seismicity—scattered events below magnitude 3.2—with no accelerating foreshock sequences or strain-rate anomalies that would signal elevated near-term risk. While accumulated tectonic stress on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto faults has reached levels unseen in a millennium, this does not translate to imminent rupture on monthly timescales. A sudden, intense foreshock swarm on a local fault or an unexpected multi-segment jump could still shift the outlook before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado


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