Recent monthly CPI prints at 4.45% in July and 4.38% in June 2026, driven by elevated food and energy prices amid Middle East tensions and a weak monsoon, align with the RBI's FY27 inflation projection of 5.0%. These factors, alongside rupee depreciation and sustained transport cost pressures, underpin trader consensus favoring the 4.50%+ annual outcome at 79.5% implied probability. The Reserve Bank of India's neutral stance and unchanged 5.25% repo rate further reflect balanced risks around the 4% target, with upcoming August data and monsoon developments as key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado4,50%+ 80%
3,75% a 4,49% 13.3%
<0,75% 3.5%
3,00% a 3,74% 2.5%
$78,329 Vol.
$78,329 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
3%
0,75% a 1,49%
<1%
1,50% a 2,24%
1%
2.25% a 2.99%
1%
3,00% a 3,74%
3%
3,75% a 4,49%
13%
4,50%+
80%
4,50%+ 80%
3,75% a 4,49% 13.3%
<0,75% 3.5%
3,00% a 3,74% 2.5%
$78,329 Vol.
$78,329 Vol.
12 ene 2027
<0,75%
$1,769 Vol.
3%
0,75% a 1,49%
$1,191 Vol.
<1%
1,50% a 2,24%
$1,275 Vol.
1%
2.25% a 2.99%
$24,989 Vol.
1%
3,00% a 3,74%
$2,081 Vol.
3%
3,75% a 4,49%
$29,540 Vol.
13%
4,50%+
$17,483 Vol.
80%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI prints at 4.45% in July and 4.38% in June 2026, driven by elevated food and energy prices amid Middle East tensions and a weak monsoon, align with the RBI's FY27 inflation projection of 5.0%. These factors, alongside rupee depreciation and sustained transport cost pressures, underpin trader consensus favoring the 4.50%+ annual outcome at 79.5% implied probability. The Reserve Bank of India's neutral stance and unchanged 5.25% repo rate further reflect balanced risks around the 4% target, with upcoming August data and monsoon developments as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado abierto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$78,329Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent monthly CPI prints at 4.45% in July and 4.38% in June 2026, driven by elevated food and energy prices amid Middle East tensions and a weak monsoon, align with the RBI's FY27 inflation projection of 5.0%. These factors, alongside rupee depreciation and sustained transport cost pressures, underpin trader consensus favoring the 4.50%+ annual outcome at 79.5% implied probability. The Reserve Bank of India's neutral stance and unchanged 5.25% repo rate further reflect balanced risks around the 4% target, with upcoming August data and monsoon developments as key near-term catalysts.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volumen
$78,329Fecha de finalización
12 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly CPI prints at 4.45% in July and 4.38% in June 2026, driven by elevated food and energy prices amid Middle East tensions and a weak monsoon, align with the RBI's FY27 inflation projection of 5.0%. These factors, alongside rupee depreciation and sustained transport cost pressures, underpin trader consensus favoring the 4.50%+ annual outcome at 79.5% implied probability. The Reserve Bank of India's neutral stance and unchanged 5.25% repo rate further reflect balanced risks around the 4% target, with upcoming August data and monsoon developments as key near-term catalysts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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