Factional tensions within Iran's leadership, including hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" by officials who negotiated the June 2026 US truce, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment on potential coup attempts. Following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other figures, disputed appointments, succession rivalries involving Mojtaba Khamenei, and IRGC influence have heightened internal divisions amid economic pressures and security crackdowns. July statements from radical lawmakers explicitly warned of impending coups against revolutionary institutions, reflecting ongoing elite power struggles rather than external orchestration. Upcoming factors include any renewed diplomatic frictions or leadership visibility issues that could intensify these dynamics, though regime security structures have historically contained such challenges without full-scale attempts materializing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$2,122,471 Vol.
31 dic 2026
31 de diciembre
9%
$2,122,471 Vol.
31 de diciembre
$81,245 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Factional tensions within Iran's leadership, including hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" by officials who negotiated the June 2026 US truce, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment on potential coup attempts. Following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other figures, disputed appointments, succession rivalries involving Mojtaba Khamenei, and IRGC influence have heightened internal divisions amid economic pressures and security crackdowns. July statements from radical lawmakers explicitly warned of impending coups against revolutionary institutions, reflecting ongoing elite power struggles rather than external orchestration. Upcoming factors include any renewed diplomatic frictions or leadership visibility issues that could intensify these dynamics, though regime security structures have historically contained such challenges without full-scale attempts materializing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,122,471Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Factional tensions within Iran's leadership, including hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" by officials who negotiated the June 2026 US truce, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment on potential coup attempts. Following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other figures, disputed appointments, succession rivalries involving Mojtaba Khamenei, and IRGC influence have heightened internal divisions amid economic pressures and security crackdowns. July statements from radical lawmakers explicitly warned of impending coups against revolutionary institutions, reflecting ongoing elite power struggles rather than external orchestration. Upcoming factors include any renewed diplomatic frictions or leadership visibility issues that could intensify these dynamics, though regime security structures have historically contained such challenges without full-scale attempts materializing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,122,471Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Factional tensions within Iran's leadership, including hardliner accusations of a "soft coup" by officials who negotiated the June 2026 US truce, represent the primary driver of trader sentiment on potential coup attempts. Following the February 2026 US-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other figures, disputed appointments, succession rivalries involving Mojtaba Khamenei, and IRGC influence have heightened internal divisions amid economic pressures and security crackdowns. July statements from radical lawmakers explicitly warned of impending coups against revolutionary institutions, reflecting ongoing elite power struggles rather than external orchestration. Upcoming factors include any renewed diplomatic frictions or leadership visibility issues that could intensify these dynamics, though regime security structures have historically contained such challenges without full-scale attempts materializing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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