Xi Jinping has maintained firm control through repeated high-level purges of the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission in 2025 and early 2026, removing senior figures including Zhang Youxia and leaving a narrow circle of loyalists. These actions, framed officially around discipline and corruption, have eliminated potential rivals and deterred organized challenges within the opaque CCP system ahead of the 2027 party congress. Traders assign 96.7 percent probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because no verifiable signs of coordinated opposition have surfaced despite the turbulence, and Xi continues to direct policy on economic support, military modernization, and internal governance. Late-breaking health events, major external crises, or undetected factional realignments remain low-probability variables that could still shift the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$155,350 Vol.
$155,350 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$155,350 Vol.
$155,350 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has maintained firm control through repeated high-level purges of the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission in 2025 and early 2026, removing senior figures including Zhang Youxia and leaving a narrow circle of loyalists. These actions, framed officially around discipline and corruption, have eliminated potential rivals and deterred organized challenges within the opaque CCP system ahead of the 2027 party congress. Traders assign 96.7 percent probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because no verifiable signs of coordinated opposition have surfaced despite the turbulence, and Xi continues to direct policy on economic support, military modernization, and internal governance. Late-breaking health events, major external crises, or undetected factional realignments remain low-probability variables that could still shift the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$155,350Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping has maintained firm control through repeated high-level purges of the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission in 2025 and early 2026, removing senior figures including Zhang Youxia and leaving a narrow circle of loyalists. These actions, framed officially around discipline and corruption, have eliminated potential rivals and deterred organized challenges within the opaque CCP system ahead of the 2027 party congress. Traders assign 96.7 percent probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because no verifiable signs of coordinated opposition have surfaced despite the turbulence, and Xi continues to direct policy on economic support, military modernization, and internal governance. Late-breaking health events, major external crises, or undetected factional realignments remain low-probability variables that could still shift the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$155,350Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping has maintained firm control through repeated high-level purges of the People’s Liberation Army and Central Military Commission in 2025 and early 2026, removing senior figures including Zhang Youxia and leaving a narrow circle of loyalists. These actions, framed officially around discipline and corruption, have eliminated potential rivals and deterred organized challenges within the opaque CCP system ahead of the 2027 party congress. Traders assign 96.7 percent probability to no coup attempt before 2027 because no verifiable signs of coordinated opposition have surfaced despite the turbulence, and Xi continues to direct policy on economic support, military modernization, and internal governance. Late-breaking health events, major external crises, or undetected factional realignments remain low-probability variables that could still shift the outlook.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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