Russia’s security apparatus has demonstrated ongoing effectiveness in neutralizing perceived internal and external threats, as shown by the FSB’s August 2026 arrests of nine individuals accused of plotting drone attacks and espionage linked to Ukrainian services. Vladimir Putin has reinforced elite alignment through public addresses at the United Russia congress, framing the party as central to wartime unity ahead of September Duma elections while rejecting diplomatic off-ramps. Earlier 2026 speculation about factional tensions or figures like Sergei Shoigu has not produced verifiable challenges, with analysts noting the regime’s established controls over military and intelligence structures. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability assigned to no coup attempt occurring by year-end, consistent with the absence of coordinated elite defections or public unrest capable of materializing into such an event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado7% probabilidad
$126,284 Vol.
$126,284 Vol.
30 dic 2026
7% probabilidad
$126,284 Vol.
$126,284 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s security apparatus has demonstrated ongoing effectiveness in neutralizing perceived internal and external threats, as shown by the FSB’s August 2026 arrests of nine individuals accused of plotting drone attacks and espionage linked to Ukrainian services. Vladimir Putin has reinforced elite alignment through public addresses at the United Russia congress, framing the party as central to wartime unity ahead of September Duma elections while rejecting diplomatic off-ramps. Earlier 2026 speculation about factional tensions or figures like Sergei Shoigu has not produced verifiable challenges, with analysts noting the regime’s established controls over military and intelligence structures. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability assigned to no coup attempt occurring by year-end, consistent with the absence of coordinated elite defections or public unrest capable of materializing into such an event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Volumen
$126,284Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s security apparatus has demonstrated ongoing effectiveness in neutralizing perceived internal and external threats, as shown by the FSB’s August 2026 arrests of nine individuals accused of plotting drone attacks and espionage linked to Ukrainian services. Vladimir Putin has reinforced elite alignment through public addresses at the United Russia congress, framing the party as central to wartime unity ahead of September Duma elections while rejecting diplomatic off-ramps. Earlier 2026 speculation about factional tensions or figures like Sergei Shoigu has not produced verifiable challenges, with analysts noting the regime’s established controls over military and intelligence structures. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability assigned to no coup attempt occurring by year-end, consistent with the absence of coordinated elite defections or public unrest capable of materializing into such an event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$126,284Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s security apparatus has demonstrated ongoing effectiveness in neutralizing perceived internal and external threats, as shown by the FSB’s August 2026 arrests of nine individuals accused of plotting drone attacks and espionage linked to Ukrainian services. Vladimir Putin has reinforced elite alignment through public addresses at the United Russia congress, framing the party as central to wartime unity ahead of September Duma elections while rejecting diplomatic off-ramps. Earlier 2026 speculation about factional tensions or figures like Sergei Shoigu has not produced verifiable challenges, with analysts noting the regime’s established controls over military and intelligence structures. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 93.5% probability assigned to no coup attempt occurring by year-end, consistent with the absence of coordinated elite defections or public unrest capable of materializing into such an event.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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